New Delhi: As the inheritor of his father, Ram Vilas Paswan’s politics and the Lok Jan Shakti Party that he established, Chirag Paswan has been fighting to slip into his father-mentor’s shoes and emerge as the face of Dalit politics in Bihar. Back in the news for announcing his support for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) candidates for the November 3 by-poll in Bihar’s Mokama and Gopalganj, Paswan has conveyed that his relationship with the BJP is back on track.
Paswan’s Lok Jan Shakti Party (Ram Vilas) was ousted from the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in 2020 after he took on another ally, the Janata Dal-United (JDU) in the run-up to the Bihar assembly elections, disregarding the BJP’s public directive to not do so.
The fresh message is a win-win for both the LJP (RV) which is trying to consolidate its position as a Dalit party; and for the BJP, which is counting on his hold over the Dalit constituency ahead of the crucial 2024 general polls where it will be pitted against the RJD-JDU combine.
To be sure, the thaw in Paswan-BJP relations has not come as a surprise since Paswan, a two-time lawmaker from Bihar’s Jamui, has been tenaciously working to make room for himself in the state’s crowded polity, where alignments and affiliations are as fickle as the weather. Partnering with a behemoth that is the BJP, is one sure way of establishing his presence as a Dalit leader.
Paswan, who is currently campaigning in Mokama told reporters that he decided to support the BJP following “his conversations” with senior leaders as the by-poll will set the tone for the 2024 polls and the subsequent state polls a year later.
A senior BJP leader not wishing to be named said it was a foregone conclusion that Paswan would return to the party fold.
“In the current situation with the RJD’s Muslim and Yadav vote-bank and the JDU’s Kurmi vote-bank coming together, his best chances are with the BJP, which is now the preferred party for Dalits and the EBCs,” the leader said.
A rough patch
2020 was not easy for Paswan. In October, as the countdown to the Bihar assembly elections began, senior Paswan was taken ill. And in the days following his passing, a family feud brewed.
The succession had been decided by the senior Paswan, who ensured the son was elected party president, sidestepping his uncle Pashupati Paras. The junior Paswan’s ties with BJP came under a cloud, which in turn led to strained ties between him and his uncle, who chose to side with the party. Paswan’s rebellion against the other ally the JDU and the bitter campaign against Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar in the run-up to the elections won him no favours with the BJP and within his party, where a section of leaders led by Paras disapproved of the tactic.
The BJP subsequently distance itself from Paswan and in June 2021, five of the six Members of Parliament from LJP met Lok Sabha speaker Om Birla to affirm that Paras would be their new leader and the LJP would be part of the BJP-led NDA.
The state election outcome too wasn’t favourable for Paswan, although he was given credit for slashing the JDU’s seat share by about 40 through his relentless campaigning against the party.
All this while, Paswan continued to stress his unquestioned loyalty to Prime Minister Narendra Modi and declared himself as his Hanuman; the Hindu God who showed unwavering devotion to Lord Ram.
Flip flops
Paswan’s tirade against Kumar and the JDU was neither dismissed as political naiveté nor was it overlooked as inconsequential. The JDU saw the BJP’s tacit support for the negative campaign. Senior JDU leaders blamed the BJP for allowing the tirade to go and most recently, Kumar expressed no surprise over the two joining hands ahead of the by-polls.
Paswan’s latest move, ostensibly hinting at a formal inclusion in the NDA, is in sharp contrast to his public statement a few months ago where he said he saw no reason to ally with the BJP. In April, after he was asked to vacate 12, Janpath, his father’s official residence for decades in the National Capital, Paswan lashed out at the BJP for lacking vision and for letting him down.
In Patna, he told reporters that he had been assured by a senior Union minister that he need not vacate the bungalow, even though he had not asked for an extension. “I was betrayed and felt cheated. I know that I am not eligible for the bungalow and I had already prepared to vacate it on April 29,” he said while speaking to the media in Patna.
Six months later, Paswan is again regaling crowds about the merits of voting for the NDA. Are his flip-flops similar to the contradictions that marked his father’s politics? Senior Paswan earned the sobriquet of mausam vigyanik or weathervane owing to his ability to jump ship.
“He has a long way to go, but having learnt the ropes from his father who had an uncanny sense to read the mood, he seems to have patched up with the BJP to enable a comeback,” said a JDU functionary not wishing to be named.
Win-win
People close to Paswan, however, assert that the process of reconciliation will not be easy. To begin with, Paswan is learnt to have conveyed his displeasure at the uncle being made a minister in the Union council. “He would prefer two ministerial berths for candidates of his choice and full control over the LJP; apart from being the only person to take a final call on LJP(RV)-BJP alliance issues,” said a person close to him.
In the 2020 polls, the LJP, which boasts of support from Dalits that together with the Mahadalits makeup 18% of the electorate, won a single seat and garnered 5.66 % of the vote share. The legislator has since switched sides to the JDU.
The BJP is hopeful that the LJP’s core supporters together with the support of the upper castes that make up 15% of the electorate, and the OBCs and the Extremely Backward Castes that are 30% of the electorate, it will be able to withstand the collective might of the JDU-RJD.
Patna-based political commentator AK Jha said Chirag’s entry into the NDA will be beneficial for both sides as the BJP can count on the 5-6% Paswan votes. “Vote transfer happens from the father to the son, when the Bihar elections took place, the BJP lost out on the Paswan votes because Chirag was alienated. For Chirag too as a young leader, the future lies with the BJP,” he said.
