Jerome Powell, chairman of the US Federal Reserve, during a Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Committee hearing in Washington, DC, US, on Tuesday, July 9, 2024.
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Markets now firmly expect a September interest rate cut in the U.S., but the Federal Reserve has a strong reason to hold off, according to economist Carl Weinberg.
Money market pricing for a rate cut at the Fed’s fall meeting rose from around 70% to more than 90% on Thursday, according to LSEG data, after a softer-than-expected consumer price index print.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell had already bolstered expectations of such a move when he said earlier this week that there were risks in keeping interest rates too high for too long — comments interpreted as “modestly dovish” by analysts.
However, there are also risks to easing monetary policy that cast a cloud over the rate cut outlook, Weinberg, chief economist at High Frequency Economics, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Friday.
“The Fed chair was very clear in his testimony this week … that inflation metrics and the economy in general are moving in the way that we kind of like,” Weinberg said.
That includes unemployment at around 4%, inflation moving towards 2%, and the economy growing “roughly” at potential, he said.
“But [Powell] also implied, well, why would we want to change anything if the economy is at full employment, with inflation where we want it to be, and it’s growing nicely? Why would we want to tinker with what we have right now? Why would you want to cut rates under those circumstances?” Weinberg continued.
“There certainly is noise, buzz and data to support a rate cut at [the September] meeting. But there also is a cloud hanging over that decision.”
While a fall cut might look likely now, a lot can change between now and the Fed meeting on Sept. 18, Weinberg added.
Two more CPI prints are due before that date. The Fed next meets at the end of July, when markets have priced in only a 5% chance of a rate cut.
Although U.S. inflation peaked lower than many other major economies over the last three years, it has also been slower to fall, leaving the Fed behind on the path of monetary easing.
The central banks of the euro zone, Switzerland, Sweden and Canada have all cut rates already this year, while the Bank of England’s August decision is seen on a knife edge.
