24 x 7 World News

Why Nitish’s refusal to take up the INDIA convenor post was expected

0

Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar’s refusal to accept the post of convenor in the Opposition alliance – the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance or INDIA – was not surprising. At the same time, one must not read between the lines in the run-up to the 2024 Lok Sabha election.

PREMIUM
Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar after the National Executive meeting in Delhi last week where he was appointed JD9U) chief (HT File Photo/Raj K Raj)

Political analysts feel that the Opposition may have missed a trick because of their inability to understand Kumar’s position and stature in Bihar’s politics, leaving him once again with political options that could directly or indirectly help the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).

Senior Janata Dal-United (JD-U) leaders are reluctant to give their verdict on the likely impact of Kumar’s refusal until the chief minister himself makes clear the reasons behind his decision. Leaders say that what happened last week was, perhaps, bound to happen after the Congress refused to pick up hints from Kumar’s statement on November 2, 2023, at the Communist Party of India public meeting, where leaders of Grand Alliance had also been invited, in Patna.

On November 2, Kumar was critical of the Congress for being “preoccupied with the elections in five states and neglecting the INDIA formation to take forward the move for a united fight against the BJP”.

After poll reversals in the three Hindi heartland states, the JD-U wasted no time in attacking the Congress for missing a vital push by ignoring regional parties.

“It was Kumar who initiated the unity move among all non-BJP parties and the first meeting was also held in Patna in June 2023. But seven months later, there is nothing to show on the ground while time is running out. Practically, what will a convenor do now when there is not much left to be done,” said a senior party leader who did not want to be named.

Parliamentary affairs minister Vijay Kumar Choudhary said seat-sharing among all the constituents of the Opposition alliance should have been complete by now, something that Nitish had said before too — everyone must be given enough room to prepare — but things did not go the way he intended.

“A post was never a priority for Nitish Kumar, as he is already a CM. He was interested in bringing all the non-BJP parties under one roof when nobody was thinking in that direction and he gave the Opposition unity move a promising start. He kept trying, but somewhere down the line, the momentum was lost. It should not have been allowed to happen,” Choudhary said but did not venture to guess Kumar’s next step.

Lost relevance

Another senior JD-U leader who spoke on the condition of anonymity said that the Congress’ moves were baffling and indicated a disinterest in forming a realistic alliance, which would require bigger sacrifices from bigger parties to accommodate regional parties.

“If the issue was to name a convenor, where did the unilateral decision to appoint a chairperson come from? There was not much time left and instead of appointing one convenor, they went in for three posts. Anyone needs time to work on strategies. Whether Nitish Kumar would have accepted it or not is beside the point, (but) any convenor would require time to work. By creating three (posts), it would first require coordination among them. So, the convenor post was made irrelevant in the way it was presented,” he added.

The main issue

The issue of seat-sharing is a crucial matter in Bihar especially because of the triangular nature of politics among the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), BJP and the JD-U that has dominated Bihar since 2005. Any two join together and the third gets overwhelmed: This was evident in the 2015 assembly election (when BJP suffered against the RJD-JD-U combine) and in the 2019 Lok Sabha election (when RJD drew a blank against the BJP-JD-U combine). In 2019, the BJP-JD-U alliance won 39 of the 40 Lok Sabha seats in the state.

“With JD-U winning 16 of the 17 seats it contested in 2019, it has valid reasons to stake a claim on them. Winning seats are seldom disturbed. That leaves the remaining 23 seats for the RJD, Congress and the Left parties to decide and distribute. RJD and the Congress have had an old understanding, but even they have not been able to decide. Talks with JD-U will only happen later. The delay is hurting all and no party will like to remain on tenterhooks until the eve of (the upcoming) crucial elections,” said another senior leader who did not wish to be named.

A miscalculation

DM Diwakar, political analyst and former director of the AN Sinha Institute of Social Studies said the Congress should have been more proactive in taking the Opposition alliance forward, but a message went down the line that it was overconfident after its Karnataka victory in 2023 and neglected the regional parties and was not ready to give any space to others.

“With a chairperson also appointed, there was no point for Nitish Kumar to accept the convenor’s post and move to national politics. Though the RJD would have liked it that way in order to make room for Tejaswi (Yadav in state politics), Nitish has sharp political acumen,” Diwakar said.

“The reluctance on the part of the Congress to give Nitish Kumar the vital role, for whatever reasons, may have also contributed to this situation. On Nitish’s part, he knows what he means in state politics and he has nothing to lose anymore and can play his politics freely to get the best bargain,” he said.

“Nitish Kumar was the initiator of Opposition unity and if he walks out, that will help the BJP whichever way one looks at it. He may also decide to go it alone this time to shed the image of (having made an) U-turn. But that will also help the BJP, just as Mayawati’s decision to go it alone in UP will,” Diwakar said.

“I feel, conscious efforts should be made by the GA to retain Nitish, as BJP knows what he means. Nitish Kumar knows the state’s politics inside out, despite not winning that many seats. But without him, no political equation can deliver,” he added.

Leave a Reply