Why do people think they’re right when they’re actually wrong? Study finds psychological reason behind the confidence

‘Brains are overconfident’

A new study published in the journal Plos One researched why people feel confident even when they are wrong. The reason? Believing that one has all the information they need to form an opinion, even when they don’t. They measured how people make judgments about situations or people based on their confidence in the information they have — even if it’s not the whole story.

Angus Fletcher, a professor of English at Ohio State University, who co-wrote the study, said, “Our brains are overconfident that they can arrive at a reasonable conclusion with very little information.” He added, “People leap to judgments very quickly.”

The research

The study utilised 1,300 people with an average age of about 40. They were provided with a fictitious story. Around 500 people were given three arguments in support and one neutral point. Another group of 500 were given three arguments that were not in favour, plus the same neutral point. The final 300 were marked as the control group, and they read a balanced story, including seven arguments — three positive, three negative, and one neutral.

When the researchers asked the groups about their opinions, the survey revealed the majority of people were much more likely to agree with the argument they had read and were often confident they had enough information to have that opinion. Additionally, compared to those in the control group, people who read only one point of view were more likely to say they were more confident in their opinion.

However, when provided with the opposing side’s information, they were often willing to change their mind. Fletcher said, “We thought that people would really stick to their original judgments even when they received information that contradicted those judgments, but it turns out if they learned something that seemed plausible to them, they were willing to totally change their minds.”

Fletcher added, “People are more open-minded and willing to change their opinions than we assume.” However, “this same flexibility doesn’t apply to long-held differences, such as political beliefs.”