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What the rest of winter has in store for Australia

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Australia has ushered in the first week of winter with record-breaking lows and incredible snow dumps.
This morning has continued the trend with Sydney recording its coldest start to winter since 1989. The mercury dipped to a low of 7C.

With one week of the season down and three more months looming, let’s take a look at what winter has in store.

Heavy rain, wet weather. Queens Square. Sydney. 12th May 2022 Photo Louise Kennerley
Above average rainfall will continue for much of Australia over winter. (Louise Kennerley)

This above average rainfall will exacerbate the risk of flash flooding across the south east as soil catchments are saturated.

Below median falls will be felt across south-western Australia, and western Tasmania, the Bureau added.

The rain is being driven by the La Ni├▒a weather phenomenon, which will “slowly weaken” over the coming months.

Modelling from the Bureau of Meteorology predicts the chance of above median rainfall in July 2022.
Modelling from the Bureau of Meteorology predicts the chance of above median rainfall in July 2022. (BoM)
“Compared to two weeks ago, tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures have warmed, particularly in the western half of the tropical Pacific, returning to near-average values,” BoM said.

“However, some atmospheric indicators continue to show a La Ni├▒a signal.”

This end of the rain, and La Ni├▒a, is also being hampered by the “likely” formation of a negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD).

Parliament House in the foreground with snow on the mountains surrounding the ACT, in Canberra on Wednesday 1 June 2022

Winter comes knocking at Parliament House, Canberra

“A negative IOD increases the chances of above average winterтАУspring rainfall for much of Australia,” BoM said.

“It also increases the chances of warmer days and nights for northern Australia.”

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral.

While the south-east has been gripped by extreme cold this week, the BoM predicts warmer than average minimum temperatures for much of Australia, as well as warmer than average nights.

There are exceptions to this; cooler than average days are predicted for central and inland areas.

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