Last winter was one for the record books. In a country known as the Great White North, it was anything but. Instead, it was the warmest winter on record for the country.
That was mainly thanks to an El Niño, a natural, cyclical warming in a region of the Pacific Ocean that, coupled with the atmosphere, can cause global temperatures to rise.
But El Niño is in the rearview mirror, so what can Canadians expect this winter?
“Winter will at least attempt to salvage its reputation across Canada,” Chris Scott, The Weather Network’s chief meteorologist, told The Canadian Press.
He said the forecast suggests this winter will be generally colder and more impactful than last year, with the cold comeback aimed more toward Western Canada. The forecast is for a colder season with near- or above-normal snow totals across parts of the west.
That’s particularly good news in an area that is experiencing drought conditions.
When it comes to Ontario and Quebec, temperatures look to be warmer than average in the winter forecast, particularly January and February.
Still, Scott said that in Ontario and Quebec — which have been experiencing a warm fall thus far — winter is on its way. The colder temperatures that have descended in the West won’t just stay put.
“It’s coming east in a hurry, and it will pack a real punch,” said Scott.
Though Environment and Climate Change Canada’s winter forecast for December, January and February won’t be released until Dec. 1, its senior climatologist, David Phillips, said their forecast will likely be similar, in the sense that we won’t be getting two warm winters in a row.
“I’ve been saying there’s going to be more of a winter this year than last winter, but, you know, that’s like saying tonight’s going to be dark and tomorrow is going to be light,” he told CBC News. “I mean, last year we had, by far, the warmest winter in Canada in 77 years of ranking these things.”
He noted that there is a forecast for La Niña — El Niño’s cooler companion — but said that if it does develop, it’s likely to be weak, so its influences, like a cold winter, may be muted.
Across the provinces and territories
Though it will be milder in Ontario and Quebec, they will likely experience above-average precipitation.
And, after colder temperatures in the next couple of weeks, Manitoba and Saskatchewan are looking at a more typical winter both in terms of precipitation and temperature, the forecast suggests.
Scott says it’s generally a good-news scenario for drought-weary Prairie farmers who rely on melting snow to help boost soil moisture in the spring.
The iciest conditions are expected farther west, where a colder-than-normal winter in Alberta and British Columbia is expected to be paired with near- or above-normal precipitation across much of the region.
It’s good sign for ski resorts across B.C. and into Alberta’s foothills — including in Banff and Lake Louise, Scott said.
When it comes to Atlantic Canada, Scott says they may see fewer storms, but they shouldn’t let their guard down.
As for the territories, Yukon and western parts of the Northwest Territories will see below-normal temperatures, while Nunavut is forecast to be warmer than normal.
Changing climate
Climate change, driven by the burning of fossil fuels, is making some of these long-term forecasts more difficult, according to Phillips.
“Canada has been warmer in the last 20 or 30 years,” he said. “La Niña, I used to think, when I began looking at seasonal forecasting, you always were happy to see El Niño, La Niña, because it made your batting average much higher.”
But that’s not the case anymore. While El Niño still continues to increase warmth in parts of Canada, and the global average, La Niña isn’t having the cooling effect it once did. Recent years that experienced a La Niña — 2020 to 2022 — were still some of the hottest years on record globally.
“It’s just not the same country that we had, say, 20-30 years ago. And the big difference is the fact that, hey, we do get winter. It sometimes looks like winter, it feels like winter, but it’s certainly not the punishing kind of typical, classic kind of winter of our youth,” Phillips said.
The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is forecasting a 57 per cent chance of a La Niña developing in the three-month period of October to December, though there’s no guarantee, and that will most certainly influence the type of winter we get.
“La Niña has been afraid to walk through the door, so we’re kind of stuck in neutral right now in the Pacific,” he said.
“And that’s important, because the Pacific Ocean, I like to think of it as the engine that drives the global weather pattern.”
As for whether or not we’ll see a white Christmas, Scott says it’s still too far off to call.