Want to bet on the future of Canada? A gambling firm operating in Ontario mulled such an offer

An online gambling brand that operates in Ontario is reversing course on an apparent proposed offering that could have let people place wagers on the future of Canada.

A public affairs firm reached out to CBC News on Monday about PowerPlay.com “offering odds” on whether the United States will annex Canada by the end of U.S. President Donald Trump’s second term in the Oval Office.

Yet a day later, a representative from the same public affairs firm said the proposed bet was being called down due to unstated “compliance” concerns.

“This market was never live in Ontario,” Stephen Murdoch of Enterprise Canada, the public affairs firm that proactively reached out to CBC News about the proposed betting offering, said via email on Tuesday afternoon.

“PowerPlay operates under strict adherence to … regulations, and this proposition was not made available to Ontarians.”

Trump’s repeated threats to place tariffs on Canadian exports and to potentially use “economic force” to enjoin the U.S. with its northern neighbour have preoccupied federal and provincial leaders on this side of the border.

In Ontario, Premier Doug Ford called a snap election on Tuesday, reiterating his position that he and the Progressive Conservative Party need to seek a renewed and strong mandate from voters in order to deal with the threats coming from the Trump White House.

Across the border, the U.S.-based Polymarket website is allowing users to place money on various scenarios in Canada — including whether this country will become the 51st U.S. state by July 2025. The company did not respond to emailed requests for comment.

Political betting now, too?

PowerPlay.com is one of dozens of brands participating in Ontario’s regulated market for online gambling services.

The nearly three-year-old Ontario market has grown to the point where it is now one of the largest in North America.

The early days of the market saw competing brands spend big to advertise and market their services — including for sports betting, casino and poker games, and e-sports. But the emergence of betting on political matters is a newer aspect of the market in Ontario.

The Alcohol and Gaming Commission of Ontario (AGCO) registers the operators and suppliers in the regulated market.

The regulator told CBC News that it is “committed to ensuring that igaming in Ontario is conducted with honesty, integrity and in the public interest.”

Regarding wagering on the proposed-but-unfulfilled U.S. annexation of Canada, the AGCO said such a scenario would be considered betting on a “novelty event.”

The commission said this involves any bet “placed on a non-sporting event where real-world factual occurrences are the contingency on which an outcome is determined” and which adheres to a list of more than a dozen criteria pertaining to sport and event betting.

The related criteria — listed in Section 4.34 of the Registrar’s Standards for Internet Gaming — include requirements that the event at the centre of such a bet can be documented and verified.

Such bets are also not supposed to be “reasonably objectionable,” a term that includes “bets on events which are unethical, allow entertainment to be derived from human suffering or death or involve non-consensual violence or injury.”

The regulator did not comment on whether a bet on the future of Canada would be considered “reasonably objectionable.”

The initial outreach from PowerPlay about the annexation-related betting scenario had noted that the company had intended to offer odds on the outcome of the federal Liberal leadership contest — a process that was triggered by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s decision to step down and prorogue Parliament while his party chooses a successor.