With Vladimir’s Putin’s troops bogged down in firefights and Russia increasingly facing economic collapse as a result of sanctions, the world is wondering what his next move might be.
Here, former British military intelligence colonel Philip Ingram and Dr Ben Noble, a Russia expert at University College London, answer your questions.
What was the plan for the war?
Mr Ingram says: “Putin’s plan hinged on Kyiv [falling] in as little as three days.”
Dr Noble says: “He expected a quick victory, which shows the analysis was wrong or he wasn’t listening. It seems he believed Ukrainians were just waiting to be saved from their government.”
Has that plan had to change?
Mr Ingram says: “Their initial hopes of toppling the government overnight have gone because they have completely underestimated the Ukrainians.
President Zelensky’s brave resistance has symbolised Ukraine’s fightback
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AFP PHOTO / Facebook account of Volodymyr Zelensky)
“The British and Americans are the best at carrying out huge operations over massive distances, and even we couldn’t pull off what he is trying to do.”
Dr Noble adds: “Putin will be incredibly frustrated that the military attack hasn’t moved faster. I’d be surprised if they weren’t thinking ‘what do we do now?’.”
What could Putin’s next move be?
“He is going to prepare for the long war in the hope he can pummel Ukraine into submission,” Mr Ingram says.
“Putin isn’t backing down,” Dr Noble explains. “There’s been no meaningful softening of the rhetoric, so I think we can assume they’re going to push on.”
A bridge destroyed by Russian bombing in Irpin, near Kyiv
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AFP via Getty Images)
The UK says Russia is bombing urban areas to break Ukrainian morale. Will it work?
“No,” says Mr Ingram. “It doesn’t work… But the pressure being put on Ukrainian President Volodymr Zelensky is phenomenal, and seeing tens of thousands of civilians slaughtered by the Russians would be enough to break anyone.”
Dr Noble says the war may harm Putin at home, adding: “The Kremlin has claimed the Ukrainians are bombing themselves for propaganda purposes, but if Russians see evidence [Putin’s troops are] shelling cities, it could change public opinion.”
Could Russians stop fighting if their morale is so low?
Mr Ingram says: “We’ve seen reports of Russian soldiers refusing to fight and running away. There are unverified reports of vehicles being abandoned.
“The most important part of any war is the people and their motivation. The Ukrainians [are] fighting for national survival. The Russians don’t know why they’re fighting, so they don’t have that backbone.”
Russia has lost troops and artillery to Ukrainian counter-attacks
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SWNS)
Are the West’s weapon shipments changing things?
Mr Ingram says: “Putin didn’t realise how powerful the weapons systems supplied by countries like the UK are – specifically the anti-tank and anti-aircraft weapons.”
Does he hope to recreatethe Soviet Union?
Mr Ingram says: “Putin plans to rebuild the USSR and have Russia back as a superpower. He doesn’t see Ukrainians as their own people. He sees them as inferior Russians.”
Dr Noble adds: “He is telling leaders of former Soviet states that if they seek closer ties with the West or become less authoritarian, maybe they could face the same things Ukraine is facing.”
Will there be a turning point soon?
“We’ve already seen the first turning point – Putin has failed to achieve his main objective and take Kyiv quickly,” says Mr Ingram. “For the Ukrainians, it is about whether they can launch a counter-attack.”
“A tipping point for Russia would be losing control over the narrative,” Dr Noble says.
How could Russia rule an occupied Ukraine?
“If the Ukrainian army is defeated, [there] will be a guerrilla war so brutal it will make the insurgencies in Afghanistan look like a joke,” Mr Ingram says. “Russia doesn’t have enough troops to stop it.”
What is real mood of ordinary people in Russia?
Dr Noble says: “More Russians seem to be seeing Moscow as the aggressor, but the Kremlin is fighting back, closing independent news outlets and threatening journalists with 15 years in prison for spreading unfavourable information about the army.”
Russians have taken to the streets in Moscow to oppose the war
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AFP via Getty Images)
“They have underestimated how much anger there is among the public and people’s willingness to go on to the streets. Judging by the numbers we’re seeing, people are unlikely to back away quietly.”
Could people in Putin’s own circle turn against him?
Dr Noble says: “Many top officials were cut out of the loop before he gave the order to invade. However, Putin has surrounded himself with super loyalists.
“Some oligarchs have come out to criticise the war, but they’ve held back from criticising Putin directly. I don’t think we can expect a coup soon, but it seems that the extent of dissent and opposition is far stronger than the authorities anticipated.”
Is there anyone he will listen to?
Mr Ingram says: “Putin’s team are ‘yes men’ who, if they don’t tell him what he wants to hear, tend to take up window-cleaning jobs and fall out of the window of the ninth floor.
“Like with Hitler, his senior military commanders will be saying ‘yes sir, no sir, three bags full sir’.”
Putin has a small inner circle that he consults with
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via REUTERS)
Dr Noble agrees, but says it’s impossible to know whether “army chiefs… aren’t working behind closed doors”.
Will sanctions actually work?
Dr Noble says: “The Kremlin will have to convince people that the economic problems aren’t to do with Putin’s decisions, but are because the West wants to punish Russia,
“It comes down to how much people are affected by the economic collapse and who they blame.”
Is there hope negotiations could end the war?
“Only diplomacy can end the conflict,” says Mr Ingram. “The question is whether it happens before the Russians have begun killing tens of thousands of civilians or have been pushed out of the country.”
But Dr Noble says: “It seems like Putin is focused on taking Kyiv before beginning meaningful negotiations.”
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