Experts at the Indian Institute of Technology (IIT), Kanpur have predicted that if the pace of vaccination increases then the third wave of Covid-19, if surges, will not be severe in its impact.
In a series of tweets, Professor Manindra Agrawal explained that a significant amount of vaccination has helped the UK control the rise in new infections.
“(In the) UK since there is a lot of talk about another wave there. It does not appear to be a major one. The current phase is not fully stable, so the projection may change a bit, but not substantially,” Agarwal said in a tweet.
Agrawal pointed out that despite a high contact rate, the wave has remained ‘gentle’. He said that this could have happened due to the high rate of vaccination which means there are not many people left to infect.
“Contact rate there is the highest it has ever been (~ 0.5), and yet the wave appears gentle. This is due to significant vaccination, which means there are not many people left to infect,” he further explained.
The UK, which is scheduled to reopen fully on June 21, is introducing new relaxations to its restrictions based on its rate of vaccination. The UK government on Wednesday said the date could be pushed back due to rapid spread of the Delta variant of Covid-19.
The fear regarding the third wave in the UK arose after epidemiologist Neil Ferguson, from the Imperial College London, said that the Delta variant has the R number – or the rate of infection – between 1.5 and 1.6, which indicates that for every 10 people infected it will infect another 15-16 people.
The Centre and state governments in India are working round the clock to ensure that citizens are vaccinated against Covid-19. The fear of a third wave has already led to several state governments ramping up their healthcare infrastructure. The governments of Uttar Pradesh, Karnataka, Jharkhand, Maharashtra and Delhi have already asked their healthcare workers to prepare for a probable third wave of Covid-19.
