Trudeau leaves behind nearly a decade of climate action, but some key priorities hang in the balance

The federal government released Canada’s 2035 emissions target last month — a milestone capping off nearly a decade of climate policy that began with Justin Trudeau’s Liberals winning power in 2015.

The prime minister tied his brand to climate action, putting a dent in Canada’s emissions, starting a transformation in various sectors of the economy and boosting the country’s climate credentials on the international stage. It was a tricky balance in a country with large extractive sectors — oil and gas, mining and logging — sometimes putting Trudeau’s environmental aims at odds with the industries that power Canada’s economy.

Now, as Trudeau prepares to step down and with a new Liberal leader expected to be chosen in the next couple of months, environmental advocates are watching to see what his climate legacy will be.

Under Trudeau, Canada has reduced its emissions by about 8.5 per cent below 2005 levels, a significantly stronger performance than that of the prior Conservative government. It’s still far from the target of a 40 to 45 per cent reduction by 2030, but the government says it shows that its policies are working and that the economy can grow without also adding to pollution.

The federal government’s carbon pricing system, which has been attacked by several provinces and the Opposition Conservatives, has also raised millions of dollars for funds that support clean technology.

And Canada is on the way to establishing new protected spaces, including massive new national parks and marine areas, as part of its promise to protect and restore nature.

But with Parliament prorogued until March 24 and an uncertain leadership change ahead, some of the government’s climate policies are hanging in the balance.

Cutting financing for foreign fossil fuels

Canada, along with the U.K and European Union, has been pushing for an international deal on limiting financing for fossil fuel projects abroad by engaging in negotiations at the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) to get industrialized countries to stop funding foreign fossil fuel projects.

Near the end of last year, those talks heated up as the outgoing U.S. administration of President Joe Biden threw its support behind a deal. But despite the optimism, negotiations have stalled.

Canada has phased out public financing for foreign fossil fuel projects through government agencies like Export Development Canada. But getting a deal done at the OECD requires all members to sign on — and despite support from the United States and Europe, Turkey and South Korea have held out due to issues related to energy security.

With U.S. president-elect Donald Trump set to take office on Jan. 20, time is running out. Trump has vowed to boost oil drilling and doesn’t seem likely to support a global deal on reducing fossil fuel funding.

“There’s still room for Canada to be a more progressive player on this. Canada signed up to various agreements to end this international public finance for fossil fuels. And although it has made some progress, the government has been stalling on how it’s going to end its domestic fossil fuel subsidies,” said Adam McGibbon, a campaign strategist based in the U.K. with climate advocacy group Oil Change International, which has been closely following the talks.

“But in terms of the international agreement, we don’t expect much more to be done after the [U.S.] inauguration.”

Protecting Canada’s biodiversity

Perhaps Canada’s biggest role in climate diplomacy was hosting the conference of the United Nations Convention on Biological Diversity in Montreal in December 2022. The conference led to a global agreement to protect 30 per cent of the world’s land and oceans, which is also Ottawa’s own conservation target.

The agreement comes at a time when biodiversity is declining at alarming rates globally, threatening water, food and human health. Canada’s negotiators managed to get a deal done at the last minute, with talks running into the early-morning hours on the last day.

This was followed by Bill C-73, the Nature Accountability Act, introduced in the House of Commons last June to enshrine Canada’s conservation targets into law. The bill is now in limbo as Parliament is prorogued, with time running out before the next federal election.

“We often see governments commit at these international UN conferences, they have showy speeches they give, have big commitments, but that doesn’t actually play out into fundamental change and biodiversity protection on the ground,” said Charlotte Dawe, a government relations and campaign specialist at environmental law group Ecojustice, which is pushing for the nature law.

“And usually that’s because it lacks any legal framework that guides those commitments.”

But with lawmakers distracted by politics and a possible election, Dawe said she isn’t confident the Liberals will be able to pick up and pass the bill in time.

Another piece of legislation that would formally establish and finalize the management plan for two new protected areas is also left in the lurch with the prorogation of Parliament. It includes the Akami-Uapishkᵁ–KakKasuak–Mealy Mountains National Park Reserve in Labrador, a massive area that could also help develop tourism in the territory.

Tackling oil and gas emissions

Oil and gas is the largest emitting sector in Canada — not surprisingly for the world’s fourth-largest oil producer and fifth-largest gas producer. But the sector’s carbon footprint is a challenge if Canada is to hit its emissions targets, even as other sectors such as electricity cut their emissions deeply.

To tackle the issue, the Liberals proposed a cap on emissions from the oil and gas industry that would eventually lead the sector to hit net-zero emissions by 2050. The draft policy was open for comment until Jan. 8 and final rules will be published in the spring — although that’s now uncertain due to the political turmoil in Ottawa.

Caroline Brouillette, executive director of Climate Action Network Canada, said finalizing the cap is essential to securing the federal government’s legacy on the environment.

“I think we need a robust conversation in Canada on what a just transition away from fossil fuels Looks like,” she said. “There’s a kind of vision piece that is needed out there in terms of being honest when it comes to the place of these fuels in a vibrant Canadian economy.”

Brouillette said she hopes to see candidates tackle that tricky question in the coming Liberal leadership race.

The Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers strongly opposes the cap, calling it “value-destroying” and “patently unconstitutional” in their response to the draft policy.