Tata Motors shares to end range-bound trend? Here are key triggers for the breakout

Shares of Tata Motors Ltd have been trading in a range during the last six months. The auto stock, which closed at Rs 450.20 on September 14 last year, stood at Rs 418.75 in the current session. During the last six months, the stock has lost 7% on BSE. At 12:03 pm today, the Tata Motors stock was trading at Rs 417, down 1.21% against the previous close of Rs 422.40 on BSE. Market cap of the firm fell to Rs 1.38 lakh crore. Tata Motors stock has gained 1.31 per cent this year and risen 7.47 per cent in 2023.

Tata Motors stock hit a 52-week high of Rs 494.50 on August 17, 2022 and a 52-week low of Rs 366.05 on May 12, 2022.

In terms of technicals, the relative strength index (RSI) of Tata Motors stands at 44.8, signaling it’s trading neither in the overbought nor in the oversold zone. Tata Motors stock has a one-year beta of 1.2, indicating very high volatility during the period. Tata Motors shares are trading lower than the 5-day, 20-day, 50-day, 100-day and 200-day moving averages.

Pic credit: BSE

Total 1.54 lakh shares of the firm changed hands amounting to a turnover of Rs 6.45 crore on BSE today. Market cap of the auto major fell to Rs 1.38 lakh crore.

However, brokerages and analysts are positive on the outlook of the stock and expect it to give a breakout soon.

Japanese brokerage Nomura has assigned a buy call on the stock with a target price of Rs 508.

JLR’s order book remains at healthy levels with steady improvements, said the brokerage adding that the management believes that 1QFY24F commercial vehicles volumes can be impacted due to pre-buying in 4QFY23F, but expects this to stabilise from 2QFY24F onwards.

Abhijeet from Tips2trade said, “Tata Motors looks weak on the daily charts and a close below support of Rs 419 could lead to Rs 400-405 in the near term. Rs 427 will be a strong resistance.”

Abhishek Gaoshinde, Deputy Vice President Research at Sharekhan by BNP Paribas said, “We have a positive outlook on the company. Tata Motors’ all cylinder fired simultaneously in Q3FY23 as JLR, domestic CV and domestic PV segment had reported improvement in operating performance simultaneously. With gradual improvement in semiconductor chip availability, we believe that JLR’s production would also improve from Q4FY23 onwards as it is already enjoying pending orders, while its Domestic CV and PV business have been witnessing healthy traction. Any kind of value unlocking at its subsidiaries would help it in reducing its net automotive debt, which we believe would augur well for the company. We have a buy rating on the stock with target price of Rs 516.”

Osho Krishan, Sr. Analyst – Technical & Derivative Research, Angel One Ltd said , “Tata Motors stock has gained nearly 12 percent in the current calendar year and is hovering just above its 200 SMA on the daily chart. After the recent run, the stock has undergone in a consolidation phase as it struggles near the cluster of its EMAs (Exponential Moving Averages) on the daily time frame. As far as levels are concerned, the swing low placed around the Rs 418-odd zone is expected to act as sacrosanct support in the comparable period. While on the flip side, a decisive breach above 445 could only trigger the next leg of rally in the counter.”

Vaishali Parekh, Vice President – Technical Research at Prabhudas Lilladher has assigned a hold call to the auto stock. It has given a target price of Rs 455-460 with a stop loss of Rs 430.

“Tata Motors has once again moved past the significant 50 EMA and 200DMA level of Rs 427 quite decisively with a positive bullish candle pattern on the daily chart to indicate strength and further rise is expected in the next 2-3 sessions till Rs 455-460 zones. The near-term support can be maintained at Rs 430 levels and expect further gains,” said Parekh.

KR Choksey Shares and Securities has assigned a target price of Rs 572 to the stock. “After seeing net losses for 7 consecutive quarters, Tata Motors delivered a net profit in Q3FY23 on the back of improved profitability across all three businesses. Chip supply is expected to improve further leading to volume ramp-up for JLR. Stability in commodity costs along with the focus on profitable growth should aid EBIT and free cash flows,” the brokerage said.

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