Supreme Court, Election Commission orders will persuade Shiv Sena fence sitters to choose Eknath Shinde, feels BJP
Both the Uddhav Thackeray and Eknath Shinde factions had claimed they represent the ‘real’ Shiv Sena and staked claim to the exclusive use of the name and the ‘bow and arrow’ symbol. File
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The Election Commission of India’s (ECI) order recognising the claim of Maharashtra Chief Minister Eknath Shinde-led faction of the Shiv Sena to the name and symbol of the party and the Supreme Court’s decision not to refer the pleas related to the 2022 crisis in Maharashtra politics to a seven-judge bench, has raised hopes in the BJP that fence-sitters in the Shiv Sena faction war will be thrown in their lot with the NDA.
According to senior sources in the BJP both these decisions, which were declared on Friday, have given a boost to the prospects of the NDA in the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) polls and more than that, the organisational capture of the Shiv Sena from Uddhav Thackeray.
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“There are sections of the Shiv Sena which undoubtedly have loyalty towards the Thackeray family, quite apart from any ideological or organisational matter. But the organisation itself, the way it is divided is dependent on many other factors,” said a source in the BJP.
According to this source, the Shiv Sena’s organisational pyramid has a Vibhag Pramukh (or a district chief) at the top, a Shakha Pramukh in the middle and a Ghatt Pramukh, largely termed as a “ paanch gali ka neta” (leader of five streets) at the most basic level.
“The most operational level, in terms of elections and voter mobilisation, is the Shakha Pramukh, which receives money and other resources from the party for its programmes and outreach to sections of society, helping out people at a personal level et al. Here, there are fence-sitters, and we hope that the EC and the SC’s decisions will help sway them,” he said.
The capacity of Mr. Shinde as Chief Minister of Maharashtra to extend State patronage is also considerable and may help swing matters.
The BJP has been conscious that the breaking away of the Eknath Shinde faction from the Shiv Sena and the fall of the Maha Vikas Aghadi government may have been successful in terms of a political operation but in narrative terms, the Uddhav Thackeray faction held its own. “Narrative is of course important, but these two decisions have been important for us in organisational terms,” said an aide of Mr. Shinde.
The NDA is anticipating that these decisions will affect the balance within the MVA, with the Uddhav Thackeray faction being weaker than before and the rising importance of the Prakash Ambedkar-led Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi (VBA).
While the VBA announced a tie-up with the Uddhav Thackeray-led faction of the Shiv Sena, the party announced its support to independent candidate Rahul Kalate in the upcoming Chinchwad bypolls, an expression of the party’s independent decision-making despite alliance pressures.
Mr. Kalate was expecting to get a ticket from the MVA but was denied, and a Nationalist Congress Party candidate announced, prompting VBA to support Mr. Kalate as an independent rebel candidate. The move is being seen as a shot in the arm for the BJP, contesting the seat. “These are the kind of things that will enhance the importance of VBA in tight multi cornered fights going into the future,” said a source in the BJP.
Maharashtra is a crucial State for the BJP and with 48 Lok Sabha seats, a good performance there is imperative if there is to a repeat of an NDA government in Delhi.
