Some States including West Bengal and U.P. are likely to have overestimated economic performance in their revised estimates, economists at SBI said in a report.
If States’ revised estimates were to be aggregated, the national GDP would have grown 3% on a nominal basis which is contrary to the National Statistical Office (NSO) estimate of a contraction, it said. “State GSDP numbers might undergo revision,” the economists said.
To validate States’ GSDP estimates for this fiscal, the economists created their own projection based on a simulation of the last few years’ performances.
For some States, there was a significant gap between the economists’ estimates and revised estimates provided by these States for FY21, as in the case of “West Bengal, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu.”
Though these States showed a rosy picture on GSDP, “the same is not reflected in tax collections,” they said in the report.