The coming week is going to be crucial as it will be heavily loaded with macroeconomic data, on the economic front, market participants will be eyeing the Index of industrial production (IIP) data for August slated to be announced on October 12. India’s IIP slowed down to a four-month low of 2.4 per cent in July. Traders will also be watching the Consumer price index (CPI) data for September scheduled to be announced on October 12. The Wholesale price index (WPI) based inflation data for the month of September is scheduled to be released on October 14. India’s WPI declined to 12.41 per cent in August 2022. While Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes and Balance of Trade Final data will be out on October 14.
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With the start of the second quarter earnings season, market participants will be watching some important results to be released next week. TCS, Delta Corp, HCL Technologies, Wipro, Cyient, Infosys, Mindtree, Bajaj-Auto, Shree Cement, and HDFC Bank are major companies to announce their numbers.
On the global front, investors will be eyeing few economic data from the world’s largest economy, the United States (US), starting with Redbook and Consumer Inflation Expectations on October 11, The Producer Price Index, Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes on October 12, Core Inflation Rate, Initial Jobless Claims on October 13, Retail Sales, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Baker Hughes Total Rig Count on October 14. Besides, traders will be keeping eye on the World Bank-International Monetary Fund (IMF) annual meeting in Washington DC scheduled for October 10-16.
Market veteran Deepak Jasani, Head of retail research at HDFC Securities, said: “Asian stock markets were trading mostly lower on Friday, following the broadly negative cues from global markets overnight, as traders continue to be concerned about the outlook for interest rates and the impact higher rates will have on the economy. European stocks went in and out of the positive territory on Friday, as investors awaited the release of an all-important US job market report that is expected to help determine the path forward for Federal Reserve monetary policy. The battered Credit Suisse Group rose after announcing a $3 billion bond buyback to steady investors’ nerves.”
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Jasani added: “Nifty rose 1.29% over the week after falling for the previous three weeks. In the process it filled the down-gap on weekly charts made in the previous week and nullified the extreme bearishness arising there from. On daily charts however the Nifty filled the up-gap made on the previous day nullifying large bullishness. Overall Nifty’s trend could remain range bound with mild bullish bias. By the coming week we will have an idea about the direction that the US Fed will like to take going by the nonfarm payrolls (due on Oct 07 evening) and inflation reports (due on Oct 13) due from US. The first batch of Q2 Indian corporate results will also start from the coming week and provide triggers for stock specific action. The Nifty in the coming week could be in the range of 17,114-17,497 points.
Key Indian equity benchmarks ended the passing week with a gain of over a percent snapping three week losing streak, The Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) Sensex surged 764.37 points or 1.33 per cent to 58,191.29 during the week ended October 07, 2022 while The Nifty surged 220.30 or 1.29 per cent to 17,314.65.
As many as 37 stocks in the Nifty 50 index delivered a positive return to investors in the passing week. With a gain of 8.3 per cent, Coal India emerged as the top gainer in the index. It is followed by Oil & Natural Gas Corporation (up 5.7 per cent), JSW Steel (up 5.4 per cent), Hindalco Industries (up 5.2 per cent), and Titan Company (up 4.8 per cent).
Larsen & Toubro, Tata Steel, Wipro and Axis Bank also advanced by over 3 per cent. On the other hand, Eicher Motors, Hindustan Unilever and Tata Consumer Products declined 4.8 per cent, 3.6 per cent and 2.8 per cent, respectively. Sector wise, the BSE Metal index gained 5.8 per cent during the week gone by. BSE Capital Goods and BSE Realty indices have also given over 3 per cent returns. In contrast, the BSE Fast Moving Consumer Goods index has declined 1 per cent.
Market Watcher Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities said: “The benchmark Nifty remained volatile before closing on a muted note. However, the index has closed above 50 EMA, confirming the ongoing positive trend. Going forward, the trend is expected to remain positive as long as the Nifty sustains above 17300. On the higher end, the 17,600-17,700 zone may act as resistance, whereas, on the lower end, support is visible at 17,200.”
“The Bank Nifty remained volatile throughout the day. However, the index has managed to sustain above 50 EMA on the daily chart. The RSI is entering a bullish crossover. Over the short term, the index may move towards 40,000. On the lower end, support is visible at 38500.”