Sensex, Nifty: From GDP numbers to US jobless claims, factors that may drive markets this week
The coming week marks the start of a new month and it is likely to be a data-heavy week. Traders will be eyeing the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data for the fourth quarter of FY22, which is slated to be released on Tuesday, February 28. On the same day, the core sector data for the month of January will be released. Additionally, auto companies would grab some attention, as they will announce their monthly sales figures.
Investors will also be eyeing S&P Global Manufacturing PMI data for the month of February, scheduled to be released on March 1. The manufacturing PMI fell to a three-month low of 55.4 in January of 2023 from 57.8 in December.
Also, S&P Global Services PMI data for the month of February will be released on March 3. The services PMI declined to 57.2 in January 2023 from December’s six-month high of 58.5. On the same day, India’s foreign exchange reserves data will also be released.
Meanwhile, the G20 Foreign Ministers’ meeting will be held in Delhi on March 1 and 2. The focus of the meeting will be on strengthening multilateralism and deepening cooperation on food, energy, security, and sustainable development. Another gathering of Quad countries’ foreign ministers is also planned on March 3, where External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar will have a meeting with his Australian, Japanese, and US counterparts.
Speaking on the market movements last week, Dr Joseph Thomas, Head of Research at Emkay Wealth Management, said: “The downslide in the equity market persisted throughout the last week of trading, influenced by internal as well as external developments.”
“The major factor that has been causing a bend in the river is the avalanche of economic data, mostly from the US, that carried hints that the economy might be stronger than one thinks, inviting an inference that there could be further policy tightening in store. These pressures are not going to go away soon and could dominate discussions and markets for another quarter or so. It looks like the factors responsible for the current weakness still has an upper hand.”
US market data
On the global front, investors will be eyeing economic data from the United States, starting with Durable Goods Orders, Pending Home Sales, Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index on February 27, Wholesale Inventories, Goods Trade Balance on February 28, API Crude Oil Stock Change, S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, ISM Manufacturing PMI on March 1, Initial Jobless Claims on March 2, S&P Global Services PMI, Baker Hughes Total Rig Count on March 3. Investors will be looking at Fed Barkin’s Speech on March 4.
Nifty Technical Outlook
Nagaraj Shetti, Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities, said: “A long bear candle was formed on the daily chart, which indicates a downtrend continuation pattern. Though Nifty placed near the crucial support of 17450-17500 levels, there is no sign of any reversal pattern unfolding at the lows. A new swing low has been formed at 17421 levels. Nifty on the weekly chart formed a long bear candle, which indicates a sharp reversal in the market this week after the recent upside bounce. The negative chart pattern like lower tops and bottoms was formed on the weekly chart and Nifty is currently on the way down to form a new lower bottom of the sequence (below 17353).”
“The short-term trend of Nifty continues to be negative. Having failed to show any crucial bottom reversal pattern near the important support of 17500 levels so far, there is a possibility of further weakness in the coming sessions. The next lower support is at 17300 and any upside bounce from here could find resistance at 17600 levels,” he concluded.
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