Russia is planning an attack on Ukraine to snatch water supply facilities, military sources believe.
There is a growing build-up of Vladimir Putin’s warships near its neighbour, sparking fears of a large-scale amphibious assault.
Four Ropucha class ships capable of offloading tanks and thousands of troops have gathered in the Black Sea.
They have joined forces with more than 15 other warships, many diverted from the Caspian Sea, in a navy formation that looks bigger than an exercise.
Moscow now has at least 150,000 heavily armed troops on the border of East Ukraine and in Crimea, which Russia annexed in 2014.
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Sources say the “most likely” attack plan is a maritime and land assault on southern Ukraine from Crimea.
The occupied peninsula has been suffering dire water shortages since Ukraine reacted to Russia’s invasion by cutting off much of the water supply.
A senior Ukraine military source said: “Ukrainian military take these ships very seriously.
“We estimate one of the Russian scenarios could be an amphibious and air assault from occupied Crimea to seize water supply facilities in south Ukraine to provide water to Crimea.”
The source said Russian commanders have deployed sniper units all along the East Ukraine border, along with artillery and mortar teams.
Some insiders say that poor weather may have delayed any potential land attack until mid-May.
It is believed the conditions are set to become warmer and drier, making it easier for large armoured formations to roll further into East Ukraine.
The EU’s top diplomat Josep Borrell said yesterday: “It is more than 150,000 Russian troops massing on the Ukrainian borders and in Crimea. The risk of further escalation is evident.”
Military analysts said it is “extremely rare” for the amphibious assault ships to join the other military craft.
Bruce Jones, a specialist writer on Russian military matters, told the Mirror: “It is unprecedented for such a large number of landing ships from so many different Russian fleets to assemble.
“Vessels such as these were deployed during the 2008 invasion of Georgia to great effect and were used to land special forces and commandos.#
“This happened on Georgian beaches and it happened very quickly.
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“What is puzzling is that such a manoeuvre, if it is not for an offensive, is an extremely costly [way] of making a threat plausible.
“Whilst it’s possible Russia wants to dilute the concentration of Ukrainian forces on the Eastern border, it also threatens southern Ukraine.
An attack on southern Ukraine does not mean you have to attack everywhere else.”
‘Shoddy’ Novichok duo a risk to spy network
Meanwhile, Russia’s notorious assassination duo has done “inestimable damage” to the Kremlin’s GRU spy network, a former British military intelligence officer claimed yesterday.
The pair have caused a trail of death and destruction in operations through Europe, but because they have stuck to the same aliases – “Russlan Boshirov” and “Alexander Petrov” – they have left themselves open to probes across the West.
An ex-intelligence officer told the Mirror: “Instead of using ‘throw-away aliases’ their shoddy tradecraft means their travels are being cross-referenced with incidents outside Russia, creating a matrix of events.
“This will be pulling other sources and agents into the mix and for the GRU it could be a house of cards.” It follows the Czech Republic identifying the pair as being behind a massive explosion at an ammunition dump in 2014, which killed two.
The special forces duo, real names Anatoliy Chepiga and Alexander Mishkin, are wanted for the 2018 Salisbury poisoning of former Russian spy Sergei Skripal and daughter Yulia.
Both men are also suspected of activity in east Ukraine and Crimea.