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Rs 70 or Rs 100, where are RVNL shares headed after 14% jump in January so far?

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Shares of Rail Vikas Nigam (RVNL), the infrastructure arm of Indian Railways, have jumped 14 per cent so far in January this year. The stock on Wednesday surged 4.97 per cent to settle at Rs 78.15 on BSE. The stock gained after RVNL emerged as the lowest bidder for two projects. As per BSE filing, an RVNL consortium emerged as the lowest bidder for supplying, testing and commissioning of power supply receiving & distribution system, 750V DC third rail traction electrification and Scada system for Surat Metro Rail Project Phase-I. It also emerged as the lowest bidder for similar work for Ahmedabad Metro Rail Project Phase-II. RVNL said the first project’s cost would be Rs 674 crore, and the second one would cost Rs 384 crore.

At today’s closing price of Rs 78.15 on BSE, the scrip was 7.13 per cent away from its 52-week high of Rs 84.15, a level seen on November 29 last year. This is after a sharp rally on the counter that lifted RVNL 169.48 per cent higher from its one-year low of Rs 29, touched on February 24, 2022.

Analysts largely felt that the stock faces strong resistance at the Rs 82 level, followed by Rs 83.50 (near RVNL’s 52-week high). A close above the said levels could lead to a potential upside towards Rs 101 in the near term, said one analyst.

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Osho Krishan, Senior Analyst – Technical & Derivative Research at Angel One, said, “RVNL is in a secular uptrend and is placed well above all its major moving averages on the daily chart, indicating inherent strength. The stock has gained strong momentum in the last two trading months and is likely to extend the same in the near period. As far as levels are concerned, the stock has a series of support from Rs 70 to the sacrosanct support of Rs 64-odd zone. While on the higher end, a decisive closure above Rs 82 level could only trigger the next round of rally, and the stock could continue its northward journey in uncharted territory.”

AR Ramachandran from Tips2trades said, “The Rs 83.50 level is a key resistance for Rail Vikas Nigam on the daily chart. A close above this level could push the stock towards Rs 97.8-101 levels in coming weeks. A strong support is seen at Rs 74.70 level.”

The stock traded above its 5-day, 20-, 50-, 100- and 200-day moving averages.

On the flip side, RVNL has an average target price of Rs 42, Trendlyne data showed, suggesting a potential downside of 46.26 per cent. The stock has a one-year beta of 0.92, indicating low volatility.

The counter’s 14-day relative strength index (RSI) came at 61.77. A level below 30 is defined as oversold while a value above 70 is considered overbought. The company’s stock has a price-to-equity (P/E) ratio of 13.19.

Meanwhile, Indian equity benchmarks extended their gains for the second straight session, led by strong buying in financials and metal stocks.

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