ICICI Securities said its channel checks on B2C e-commerce companies suggest the March quarter results may underwhelm Street expectations. After a difficult December quarter, investors were expecting recovery in March quarter, it said adding that there are signs of consumption fatigue across online food ordering and BPC e-commerce.
“This is in contrast to the buoyancy in some offline discretionary categories such as travel and hospitality. We believe this is due to wallet share recalibration among different consumption baskets and sustained trend of online-to-offline migration first seen in Q2FY23,” it said.
This is what the brokerage said on a few internet companies.
Zomato Q4 results preview
ICICI Securities estimates Zomato’s gross order value (GOV) for food delivery segment to remain flat sequentially (up 14.2 per cent YoY) in the March quarter despite the activation of Zomato Gold membership, given a seasonally weaker quarter and online consumption fatigue trends as noted above.
It expects 1 per cent sequential decline in food ordering average order value (AOV) as delivery fees have been waived off for Gold members. The food ordering contribution margin is expected to remain stable sequentially as restaurant take rate improvements may offset delivery subsidy increases.
“We estimate Hyperpure business (B2B) to grow 26 per cent QoQ and Blinkit to grow 30 per cent QoQ led by an increase in geographical reach. Overall, we estimate adjusted revenue growth of 9.5 per cent QoQ and 68 per cent YoY and flattish consolidated Ebitda QoQ in Q4FY23E, indicating sustainable growth in new businesses,” the brokerage said.
Nykaa Q4 results preview
March is historically a weak quarter for FSN E-Commerce Ventures (Nykaa). ICICI Securities expects the quarter to experienced online consumption fatigue. In its view, the management’s decision to activate a new sale event in March quarter was to counter the ongoing headwinds. The brokerage estimates overall gross merchandise value (GMV) to grow 38 per cent YoY (down 11.3 per cent QoQ) led by 30 per cent YoY GMV growth (down 13.8 per cent QoQ) in BPC segment and 43 per cent YoY growth (down 5 per cent QoQ) in fashion segment. Overall, it estimates revenue growth of 31.3 per cent YoY in Q4FY23.
“We believe cost control measures are likely to aid EBITDA margin expansion of 120bps YoY (flat QoQ). We estimate Ebitda to grow 73 per cent YoY and PAT to grow 4 per cent YoY,” the brokerage said.
delhivery-ltd-delhivery-share-price-364398″ target=”_blank”>Delhivery Q4 results preview
ICICI Securities expects express parcel shipment volumes to decline 4 per cent YoY (flattish QoQ) for Delhivery in the March quarter, given a high contribution of Shopee in the base quarter. It believes that Delhivery has likely gained market share in 3PL category in the March quarter.
“We estimate sustained improvement (17.4 per cent YoY) in PTL volumes as Delhivery continues to improve SLAs. However, PTL volumes may still remain c30 per cent below pre-acquisition levels in Q4FY23E. Overall, we estimate Delhivery’s revenue to grow 5.8 per cent QoQ (6.8 per cent YoY de-growth) in Q4FY23E,” it said.
The brokerage estimated Delhivery to deliver positive adjusted Ebidta in Q4FY23 for the first time since listing. This could be a positive trigger for the stock, it said.
Just Dial Q4 results preview
Given the robust outlook around B2B e-commerce and the management’s conscious efforts to increase exposure in the space, ICICI Securities believes Just Dial’s B2B revenues are likely to grow faster (10.1 per cent QoQ, 63.7 per cent YoY) in the March quarter. Overall, the brokerage estimated revenue for Just Dial to grow at 41.1 per cent YoY and 6.3 per cent QoQ. Ebitda margin is likely to remain stable sequentially at 12.3 per cent, though with an improvement of 16bps YoY.
“We estimate Ebitda to grow by 6 per cent sequentially to Rs 31.2 crore in Q4FY23E against a loss of Rs 80 lakh in Q4FY22,” it said.
Matrimony Q4 results preview
ICICI Securities estimates Matrimony’s matchmaking services to grow 4.3 per cent QoQ in Q4FY23E, reversing the trend of sequential declines seen in September and December quarters. It believes that marriage services (3 per cent of revenues) should continue to grow faster at 11.2 per cent QoQ. Overall revenue is expected to grow 4.5 per cent QoQ and 4.3 per cent YoY, led by improved billings.
“We estimate Ebitda margin to expand to 16.7 per cent in Q4FY23E (+540bps QoQ, flat YoY). Ebitda and PAT are likely to grow 3.4 per cent and 2.5 per cent YoY by our estimates,” it said.
Nazara Technologies Q4 results preview
ICICI Securities expects Nazara revenue to grow 64.1 per cent YoY (down 8.7 per cent QoQ) in Q4FY23E, broadly in line with the management’s full year guidance. This will be led by sustained strong growth in e-sports (97 per cent YoY), gamified early learning (22 per cent YoY) and ad-tech segments.
Nazara’s Ebitda margin is seen declining to 5.2 per cent in March quarter, which is historically weak margin quarter for Nazara. This is against 9.7 per cent margin in December quarter. Overall Ebitda is seen flattish YoY.
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