PATNA: Bihar has always been the talking point of politics and 2022 was no different as it witnessed one of the biggest tectonic shifts in the political arena.
Not only the people of the state but political leaders were left stunned when the state’s longest-serving chief minister Nitish Kumar cleverly sidelined the Bharatiya Janata Party(BJP), a long-time ally of his party Janata Dal (United), to form a new alliance of seven parties, the Mahaghatbandhan (the Grand Alliance) and in the process became the chief minister of the new alliance for the record eighth time in 22 years.
The changes in the political equation, ahead of the parliamentary elections due in 2024 and assembly polls in 2025, once again brought the focus back to Bihar politics as political pundits started a discussion on its impact on the national political horizon.
Here’s a look at the major parties which are likely to impact the political equation in Bihar.
Janata Dal (United)
Reeling from the worst performance by his party and reduced to 43 MLAs in 2020 since 2005 after the party joined the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), the sudden move by Nitish Kumar to part ways with BJP, 20 months after sharing power with the NDA allies, surprised everybody.
With this move, 71-year-old Kumar proved those wrong who thought he was headed toward retirement. He is now eyeing a possible national role of uniting the Opposition to stop Narendra Modi’s juggernaut in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.
What came as a shock to political pundits was that the move to alienate from the BJP came after having supported the NDA in the Presidential and vice-presidential elections.
The latest U-turn laid the roadmap ahead of the crucial 2024 general elections. Recently, Kumar announced that he will run a campaign against BJP and he would not contest any elections.
“The year turned out to be good for the JD (U). Kumar became the fulcrum for the battle in 2024 and he has also spelled out the formula for a BJP-mukht Bharat. It has given new energy to the party,” said Dr. Sunil Singh, JD (U) spokesperson.
However, the defeat in by-polls at Kurhani made the fault line apparent in the party and it remains to be seen whether they will be able to keep their vote bank intact.
Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)
Outfoxed by the wily leader Nitish Kumar, the saffron party, which for the first time got more seats in 2020 assembly polls than its former alliance partner, the BJP seems to overcome the ‘trauma’ of losing power.
From the initial stance of ‘back-stabbing’, the mood gave way to ‘good riddance” as the party put an all-out effort to get out of the shadow of Kumar.
This was reflected in the results of the by-polls. Out of the three seats, the BJP won two and it contested against the ruling Grand Alliance.
“It was a blessing in disguise for us. Despite being the larger party, we made him the CM as per the party’s commitment. Once we came out of his shadow, we showed our true colour,” said BJP MLA Devesh Kumar.
“With a 23% vote share (along with LJP) in 2020, we now have a vote share of 42.6% which means if we work hard, we can achieve a 50% vote share. For this, already our organisation is being strengthened horizontally and vertically,” he said.
However, the real challenge, which the BJP will face in its quest for power in Bihar, is the leadership issue. “The party still doesn’t have a name in the state to rally people around and has to bank on Modi’s magic,” said a BJP leader.
JD (U) also faces the same problem as it has failed to develop a second line of leadership.
Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD)
The biggest beneficiary of the political somersault of the year has been Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) which narrowly missed the bus to power in the 2020 assembly polls.
However, 20 months later, the power came on a platter.
“RJD and the JD (U) are on the same footing as BJP and JD (U) were. The RJD has a strength of 77 MLAs and even has the backing of Congress and Left parties. It is in a position to dominate,” said Professor Gyanendra Yadav, assistant professor of Sociology, College of Commerce, Patna.
Kumar’s arch-rival, RJD president Lalu Prasad, recovering from a kidney transplant, has junked past hostility mindful of an assured future for his son Tejashwi Prasad Yadav, whom Kumar has taken under his wings as his deputy and has made it clear that the next elections would be contested under Tejashwi’s leadership.
The Congress
The Congress, virtually reduced to a minor party, is hoping to revive under the new leadership in the state. The political whirlwind also made Congress realise that it was time to give up quarrels with the RJD and enjoy its share in power as a docile smaller ally in the ‘Mahagathbandhan’ government.
However, a good number of party leaders accept that in this era of coalition politics, Congress also has to forge an alliance with regional parties and keep in abeyance its plan to go solo.
The year also saw the increasing role of Asaduddin Owaisi-led All India Majlis-E-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM), which has played spoilsport to the Muslim-Yadav equation of the regional parties and virtual decimation of Mukesh Sahni-led Vikassheel Insaan Party(VIP), which lost all its MLAs who joined the BJP.
Chirag Paswan, too, seems to return to the NDA fold though not to forget the humiliation he felt when the party gave legitimacy to his uncle Pashupati Kumar Paras who split the party founded by his father and also grabbed a berth in the Union Cabinet.
Lurking on the horizon is Prashant Kishor, who has done business with most big players inside and outside the state and now seems to have developed political ambitions of his own. Having given up political consultancy for good, he has taken to activism and is hopeful of his ‘Jan Suraaj’ campaign evolving into a unique political alternative for his home state which he seeks to traverse on foot in about a year.
