JERUSALEM тАФ Benjamin NetanyahuтАЩs right-wing alliance may have won a narrow lead in IsraelтАЩs fifth election in less than four years, exit polls suggested on Tuesday night, giving him a chance of returning to power at the helm of one of the most right-wing governments in Israeli history.
Three broadcastersтАЩ exit polls indicated that Mr. NetanyahuтАЩs party, Likud, would finish first and that his right-wing bloc was likely to be able to form a narrow majority in Parliament.
But exit polls in Israel have been wrong before, particularly in tight races тАФ and they exaggerated Mr. NetanyahuтАЩs eventual tally in the last election, in March 2021.
If the right-wing bloc does eke out a narrow victory, it would allow Mr. Netanyahu, IsraelтАЩs longest-serving prime minister, to return to office even as he stands trial on corruption charges.
Regardless of whether Mr. Netanyahu wins back power, the election was a triumph for IsraelтАЩs far right.
An ultranationalist religious alliance that backs Mr. Netanyahu was projected to become the third-largest bloc in Parliament, highlighting how the election was construed by many right-wing Jewish Israeli voters тАФ unsettled by Arab participation in IsraelтАЩs outgoing government тАФ as a chance to reinforce the countryтАЩs Jewish identity.
The far-right alliance seeks to upend IsraelтАЩs judicial system, end Palestinian autonomy in parts of the occupied West Bank and legalize a form of corruption that Mr. Netanyahu is accused of committing.
тАЬThe time has come for us to be the landlords of our country,тАЭ Itamar Ben-Gvir, one of Mr. NetanyahuтАЩs new far-right partners, said in a speech early on Wednesday morning.
Mr. Ben-Gvir seeks to grant legal immunity to Israeli soldiers who shoot at Palestinians, and deport rival lawmakers he accuses of terrorism. Until recently, he hung a portrait in his home of Baruch Goldstein, who shot dead 29 Palestinians in a West Bank mosque in 1994.
тАЬThe public voted for a Jewish identity,тАЭ Mr. Ben-Gvir added, as his supporters chanted тАЬdeath to terroristsтАЭ in the background.
Clearer results may not emerge until Wednesday morning, and final numbers will not be announced until Friday. Party leaders will not be asked to nominate a prime minister before next week.
But the exit polls prove to be correct, Israel may have ended a four-year political deadlock in which no leader could win a stable parliamentary majority, leaving the country without a national budget for long stretches and repeatedly returning Israelis to the ballot box.
For the first time since 2019, the country could be governed by a parliamentary majority formed from a single ideologically aligned bloc тАФ reducing the risk of infighting in the coalition and the likelihood of another early election. In addition to the far-right, Mr. NetanyahuтАЩs likely coalition includes two ultra-Orthodox parties that oppose the secularization of Israeli public life.
A government led by Mr. Netanyahu and featuring Mr. Ben-Gvir would bring down the final curtain on one of IsraelтАЩs most diverse coalitions ever: Prime Minister Yair LapidтАЩs eight-party alliance, which united political opponents from the right, left and center, and included the first independent Arab party to join an Israeli governing coalition.
If the exit polls are accurate, the leaders of the parties in Mr. NetanyahuтАЩs bloc will be able to formally nominate him for prime minister next week, as long as they can seal a coalition agreement. Two of Mr. NetanyahuтАЩs far-right allies have said they will push to lead ministries that oversee the army and the police тАФ appointments that Mr. Netanyahu has expressed wariness of, potentially slowing down coalitions negotiations.
Adjusted projections early Wednesday morning indicated that Mr. NetanyahuтАЩs Likud finished first, with 30 to 32 seats, while his wider right-wing bloc won 62 seats, according to all three main television channels, enough to form a narrow majority in the 120-seat Parliament.
Mr. LapidтАЩs centrist party, Yesh Atid, was projected to win 22 to 24 seats, and his wider alliance 54 to 55 seats. An unaligned party won the remaining seats.
That calculus could change quickly as real results come in. One Arab party, Balad, was teetering just below the electoral threshold, 3.25 percent of the total vote. Should Balad reach the threshold, analysts said, that would change all the calculations and reduce Mr. NetanyahuтАЩs lead, potentially depriving his bloc of a majority.
Early Wednesday, the central elections committee said that the final voter turnout by 10 p.m., when the polls closed, was 71.3 percent. That was the highest since IsraelтАЩs 2015 election, when turnout was 71.8 percent, but below some previous votes.
IsraelтАЩs political gridlock began when Mr. Netanyahu declined to leave power after being placed under investigation on accusations of corruption. His decision left the country roughly evenly divided between voters who thought he should now stay away from politics and those who believed he should stay.
An outright victory for Mr. Netanyahu would not resolve a more protracted debate about the kind of society Israelis want тАФ a debate that was central to the election campaign.
Mr. NetanyahuтАЩs bloc presented the vote as a quest to preserve IsraelтАЩs Jewish character. He and his allies targeted Jewish Israelis alienated by Arab involvement in Mr. LapidтАЩs departing government and unsettled by a spasm of ethnic unrest between Arabs and Jews in Israeli cities last year.
By contrast, Mr. NetanyahuтАЩs opponents presented the election as a bid to protect IsraelтАЩs liberal democracy. In particular, they warned of his dependence on a far-right alliance that has frequently antagonized IsraelтАЩs Arab minority and seeks to remove checks and balances on the lawmaking process.
Once again, Mr. NetanyahuтАЩs fitness for office was the campaignтАЩs defining theme. He was placed under investigation in 2016 on charges related to bribery, fraud and breach of trust.
Three elections ended inconclusively in 2019-20, leaving Mr. Netanyahu in power but unable to pass a budget, and forcing Israelis to return each time to the ballot box.
Mr. Netanyahu was ousted after a fourth election in 2021, when a former right-wing ally, Naftali Bennett, broke ranks to lead a coalition with Mr. LapidтАЩs centrist party and seven others, including Raam тАФ the first Arab party to join an Israeli government.
That alliance collapsed in July amid profound ideological disagreements among its members, leading Mr. Bennett to make way for Mr. Lapid and call for another election.
Then followed a brief, downbeat and stop-start campaign in which the parties and a tired electorate were distracted by a run of four Jewish holidays through September and October.
Mr. Netanyahu portrayed himself as the only candidate able to keep Israel safe, portraying a border deal sealed recently by Mr. Lapid with neighboring Lebanon as a weak compromise that had endangered IsraelтАЩs security.
The far-right alliance allied to Mr. Netanyahu, Religious Zionism, often eclipsed him during the campaign through their populist promises to loosen judicial oversight over lawmaking, grant legal immunity to Israeli soldiers who shoot at Palestinians, and deport rival lawmakers they accuse of terrorism.
The leader of Religious Zionism, Bezalel Smotrich, has described himself as a тАЬproud homophobeтАЭ and said that IsraelтАЩs Arab minority had survived in Israel only тАЬby mistake,тАЭ after IsraelтАЩs founders didnтАЩt expel enough of them in the wars surrounding the creation of the state in 1948. He has also supported segregated maternity wards for Arab and Jewish women, and said Jewish developers should not have to sell homes to Arabs.
His colleague, Mr. Ben-Gvir, was barred from serving in the Israeli Army because he was considered a security threat, and recently described Meir Kahane, an extremist rabbi who wanted to strip Arab Israelis of their citizenship, as his тАЬhero.тАЭ
Throughout the campaign, Mr. Ben-Gvir presented himself as an enforcer of law and order. He frequently visited areas of pronounced tensions between Israelis and Palestinians, at one point drawing his handgun and calling on his police escorts to shoot at nearby Arabs.
A victory for Mr. Netanyahu would eliminate the already unlikely chance of resuming peace negotiations between Israelis and Palestinians. Throughout the campaign, he presented himself as a bulwark against the creation of a Palestinian state тАФ the so-called two-state solution тАФ while allies like Mr. Ben-Gvir advocated ending Palestinian autonomy altogether.
But though Mr. Lapid supports a two-state solution, he would also be unlikely to push for peace if he remained in government. Mr. LapidтАЩs own bloc includes parties that also oppose a Palestinian state, while the Palestinian leadership is also divided and badly placed to resume peace talks.
The effect of a victory for Mr. Netanyahu тАЬcannot be minimized,тАЭ said Yohanan Plesner, president of the Israel Democracy Institute, a Jerusalem-based research group.
тАЬIf the exit polls hold true,тАЭ he said, тАЬIsrael is headed toward a governing coalition that could seek to fundamentally alter its current democratic order and weaken the countryтАЩs delicate system of checks and balances.тАЭ
Reporting was contributed by Myra Noveck from Jerusalem; Irit Pazner Garshowitz from Tzur Hadassah, Israel; Gabby Sobelman from Rehovot, Israel; and Hiba Yazbek from Nazareth, Israel.