This week, investors will be looking for the major macroeconomic data, including the foreign exchange reserves data, to be out on March 24. Forex reserves in India increased to $562.4 billion in the week ended March 3, 2023, from $560.94 billion in the previous week. On March 24, investors will be watching for the deposit growth bank loan growth data. The value of loans in India increased by 15.5 per cent, while the value of deposits in India increased by 10.1 per cent year-on-year in the fortnight ending February 24, 2023.
Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research (Retail) at Kotak Securities said: “Crude oil prices corrected sharply in this passing week amid the recent banking crisis. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury was lower as compared with last week. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank raised interest rates by 50 bps and continued with its policy tightening measures. Market participants will keenly watch out for next week’s Federal Reserve policy decision.”
US market data: On the global front, all eyes will be on the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to be held on March 21-22. There are expectations of a 50 basis point rate increase at the Fed meeting. The US central bank has raised its benchmark overnight interest rate by 450 basis points since last March. On the economic data front, existing home sales data is to come out on March 21. Initial jobless claims, new home sales are slated for March 23, durable goods orders, S&P global services PMI, S&P global manufacturing PMI, and Baker Hughes oil rig count on March 24.
FPI investments: Commenting on foreign investors’ movement, V K Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Financial Services said, “FPIs have invested a total amount of Rs 11,344 crore till March 18. This includes the bulk investment of Rs 15,446 crore by GQG Partners in Adani stocks. So, net of the bulk deals the FPI is negative. For 2023, so far, FPIs have sold equity for Rs 23,283 crore (NSDL). FPIs have been consistent buyers only of capital goods. In financial services, they have been alternating between buying and selling on different fortnights. Since risk-off is the dominant market mood now following the bank failures in the US and fears of contagion, FPIs are unlikely to turn buyers in the near term.”
Nifty – Technical outlook: Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities said, technically, a Doji pattern followed by a recovery candle on the daily chart indicates the possibility of a bullish reversal. On the higher end, immediate resistance is placed at 17,250, where the bears might try to return to the market. However, if bulls take the Nifty above 17250, the index may move towards 17,500–17,600. On the lower end, support remains intact at 16,950.
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