Market this week: From inflation to trade balance data, factors that may drive Nifty, Sensex
This week, investors will be looking for the major macroeconomic data starting with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for February to be out on March 13. Also, the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) data for February will be released a day later, on March 14. On the same day, the market participants will be eyeing the Balance of Payment (Exports and Imports) data. The Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM) will come out with the total passenger vehicle sales data on the same day. The foreign exchange reserves data is going to be released on March 17.
Meanwhile, the second phase of the Budget session will begin on Monday (March 13) and will continue till April 6. During the session, the focus will be on the discussion of the demands for grants for various ministries apart from the government’s legislative agenda.
Deepak Jasani, market watcher and Head of Retail Research at HDFC Securities said, “Nifty closed in the red for the second consecutive session on March 10, pulled down by negative global cues. At close, Nifty was down 1 per cent or 176.7 points at 17412.9. The outcome of the US Jobs report on Friday evening could impact the near-term trend of Nifty. European and Asian equities also dropped on Friday as fears over the health of banks’ bond portfolios (reflected in troubles emanating at a Silicon Valley-based lender) compounded investors’ nervousness ahead of the publication of key US jobs data and the next US Fed meeting.”
Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Financial Services, said: “The global market has fallen back into the grip of uncertainty following the Fed chief’s comment that signalled the possibility of a prolonged and faster rate hike, contradicting a dovish comment made by another Fed official last week. The market now anticipates a 50 bps rate hike, which has pushed the dollar index to a three-month high. Selling intensified towards the end of the week following further negative cues from the US market and as the market awaited the release of US unemployment and non-farm payroll data, which will have a significant impact on the upcoming Fed meeting.”
US Market Data
On the global front, investors would be eyeing few economic data from the world’s largest economy, the US, starting with inflation rate or CPI and Redbook data on March 14, API Crude Oil Stock Change, Retail Sales, Business Inventories, Producer prices for final demand and NAHB Housing Market Index on March 15, Building Permits, Initial Jobless Claims on March 16, Industrial Production, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Baker Hughes Total Rig Count on March 17.
Nifty – Technical Outlook
Amol Athawale, Deputy Vice President of Technical Research at Kotak Securities, said technically, the Nifty has formed a strong bearish candle on weekly charts and it is comfortably trading below the 20 and 50-day SMA. “For the positional traders, 17,550 would act as a medium-term resistance zone and below the same, the index could slip till 17150.
On the flip side, a minor pullback rally is possible, if the index trades above 17425 and could move up to 17480-17500. Meanwhile, Bank Nifty also breached the important support level of 41,000 or 20-day SMA (Simple Moving Average) which is broadly negative. Below the same, the Bank Nifty could retest the level of 40,000-39,800,” he concluded.
