“La Niña has ended in the tropical Pacific Ocean,” the BoM said in its latest climate driver update.
“The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is now neutral (neither La Niña nor El Niño) with oceanic and atmospheric indicators having returned to neutral ENSO levels.
“International climate models suggest neutral ENSO conditions are likely to persist through the southern autumn.
“However, there are some signs that El Niño could form later in the year.
“Hence the Bureau has issued an El Niño Watch.
“This means there is a 50 per cent chance of an El Niño in 2023.”
El Niño typically brings hot, dry conditions to Australia, often leading to drought and bushfires.
The last time one was in effect was in 2019-20, when the Black Summer fires devastated the east coast.
According to the BoM, the average of international model forecasts suggests an El Niño could be declared in August.
Record heat in NSW sparks bushfires
The weather bureau’s announcement brings to an end the third-consecutive La Niña event, only the third time a “triple dip” had been recorded.
Australia set a number of rainfall records in 2022, which was the ninth-wettest year on record.
However, despite La Niña being in effect, temperatures were still above average by half a degree, making it Australia’s equal-22nd-warmest year ever recorded.
