The Kasba Peth Assembly bypoll results are out and CongressтАЩs Ravindra Dhangekar has succeeded in ending the BJPтАЩs five-term run in a constituency that was often touted as the bastion of the saffron party.
Here are the five reasons that likely played a part in ensuring CongressтАЩs win and BJPтАЩs defeat:
Ravindra Dhangekar
The single most important factor that played in Ravindra DhangekarтАЩs favour is the man himself. Dhangekar (56) is extremely popular in large pockets of Kasba Assembly constituency as тАШKamacha ManoosтАЩ (the man who gets the work done). He has been a corporator from the area for the last 25 years from various political parties as well as an Independent.
During the campaign, it was clear that more than anything else, the contest in Kasba was тАШDhangekar vs BJPтАЩ. Voters from his sphere of influence said they would have voted for Dhangekar irrespective of the party. Dhangekar has a тАШcommon manтАЩ image and, it is said, that he has never been seen travelling in a car. He goes around on a scooter and is often seen riding pillion on the bikes of those who come to him to get their work done from Pune Municipal Corporation (PMC) or elsewhere.
A united MVA
This bypoll was the first time in two decades that there was a direct fight between two candidates. Several previous Assembly polls have seen multi-cornered fights with a number of strong candidates entering the fray from the eastern part of the constituency. The division of votes, especially from the eastern part of the constituency, which has a high working-class population, has traditionally helped BJP in securing a comfortable win.
In this bypoll, however, the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) managed to stop any rebellion in its ranks тАУ something it failed to do in Chinchwad with Rahul KalateтАЩs rebellion. In Kasba, Congressman Balasaheb Dabhekar had filed his nomination as an Independent but the party managed to persuade him to withdraw.
The MVA unity тАУ also put on display during the campaign тАУ added to DhangekarтАЩs personal pull in the constituency.
Discontent in BJP
Although the BJPтАЩs state leadership left no stone unturned to pull the victory away from Dhangekar, it was clear from the beginning that all was not well within its city camps. The family of Mukta Tilak, whose untimely death necessitated the Kasba bypoll, was dejected after a family member was not allowed to contest the poll and made their displeasure known publicly.
Girish Bapat, four-time MLA who is now the Pune MP, was more or less out of action due to serious illness. Popular BJP corporator Dheeraj Ghate, who was among the aspirants for the ticket, was reportedly dispirited after being denied candidature.
Anti-incumbency in Kasba
The election results show that Dhangekar received considerable votes even from Brahmin-dominated areas, said to be a BJP stronghold for decades. These areas have a plethora of issues that remain unaddressed such as those pertaining to water supply, sewage management and vehicular traffic. As a result, tens of thousands of residents from this central part of the city have moved to newer localities. The important issue of redevelopment of old and crumbling wadas remains unattended.
It appears that a section of voters from these traditional BJP supporters may have decided to give Dhangekar a chance.
Hemant RasaneтАЩs candidature
The BJP reportedly conducted an internal survey to decide on the candidature for the bypoll. It had several aspirants, including heavyweight leaders such as Dheeraj Ghate and Ganesh Bidkar, apart from members of Mukta TilakтАЩs family, including her husband Shailesh Tilak and son Kunal Tilak.
Based on the internal assessment, the party leadership decided to field Hemant Rasane, who helmed the Pune Municipal Corporation standing committee for three consecutive years and is also an office-bearer of PuneтАЩs most popular Ganesh temple тАУ Dagadusheth Halwai Ganpati Mandal.
Rasane, however, lacked contact among the masses. In the eastern part of the constituency, many voters had not even seen him at all. Also, despite chairing the standing committee for several years, he did not have much work to show in the Kasba Peth constituency. BJP insiders say that Ghate or someone from the Tilak family may have fared better.
Although Dhangekar won, his margin of victory was narrower than what was expected in the early phase of the campaign. BJPтАЩs state leadership, namely Deputy Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis and ministers Girish Bapat and Chandrakant Patil, put all their might to pull back the defeat that appeared almost certain at that time. Chief Minister Eknath Shinde too was roped in to woo voters.
In the final leg of the campaign, the BJP tried to polarise voters by raising the Punyeshwar Temple-Sheikh Salla Dargah issue. It was also alleged that it liberally misused money and muscle power. All these efforts seem to have reduced the gap between Dhangekar and Rasane. However, it failed to tide over the other factors that worked in DhangekarтАЩs favour.
