Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s decision to step down has sparked speculation about who will lead the Liberals into the next election — but his decision to prorogue Parliament could also narrow the timing of when the federal vote will be held.
Election rules state the vote should come by October at the latest. But the three major opposition parties have now pledged to bring down the minority Liberal government at the earliest opportunity.
Parliament was scheduled to return from its winter break at the end of January. But Trudeau said Monday that Gov. Gen. Mary Simon has agreed to prorogue, or suspend, Parliament until March 24.
Prorogation will keep the Liberals safe from a confidence vote in the House of Commons while the party chooses a new leader. It’s not yet clear when the Liberals will hold a leadership vote, but it will presumably happen before the House returns.
This parliamentary pause sets the House up for a few different scenarios in which the government could fall within the first week MPs return to Ottawa — or even earlier.
Prorogation means the end of a parliamentary session. A new session will begin when the House returns in March and — as is custom at the beginning of each new session — the government is expected to present a throne speech outlining its priorities.
Traditionally, throne speeches are debated and voted on in the House and are considered confidence votes — meaning the government falls if they lose the vote.
In a major political development, Justin Trudeau has announced he will step down as both prime minister and Liberal Party leader once a replacement is chosen, likely delaying a federal election until the spring. Andrew Chang breaks down what led to this announcement and the implications of proroguing Parliament amid growing tensions with the U.S and president-elect Donald Trump.
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But the House isn’t necessarily required to debate or vote on a throne speech, and they have been skipped in the past.
The government will however be running up against a deadline to bring forward new spending estimates.
According to parliamentary rules, the government has three deadlines each year to table spending estimates for approval by the House. The next deadline falls on March 26. Votes on government spending are automatically considered matters of confidence, so an election would be triggered if MPs don’t approve the Liberals’ spending.
During a typical sitting, opposition parties are also granted a certain number of “allotted days” — known informally as opposition days — before a vote on spending estimates occurs. Despite only a few sitting days scheduled for March, the government could potentially schedule an opposition day the week the House returns.
Opposition days allow one of the opposition parties to put forward motions that take precedence over government business. As the Conservatives did a number of times in the fall, a party can state explicitly in an opposition day motion that they’ve lost confidence in the government and ask other parties to join them in bringing it down.
Canada’s election rules say a campaign has to last between 37 and 51 days. If the government does fall at the end of March, an election would have to be held in early or mid-May.
It’s also possible that Trudeau’s successor decides to avoid testing the confidence of the House and asks the Governor General to dissolve Parliament before it is scheduled to return. Depending on when the next prime minister takes office, that could mean an election before May.
