Daily Telegraph form analyst Shayne O’Cass gives his best bets and runs the rule over every race for Kembla.
The Form: Complete NSW Racing thoroughbred form, including video replays and all you need to know about every horse, jockey and trainer. Find a winner here!
KEMBLA GRANGE
BEST BET
Race 5, No.2: MENTALISM
Kembla-based son of So You Think who boasts some compelling numbers to take this out and was a super impressive trial winner six days ago.
NEXT BEST
Race 3, No.3: AIRLINER
Lightly-raced son of the AJC Derby winner Starcraft who has shown talent in all three runs so far. Gets through the wet and strips fitter for the first-up outing.
VALUE BET
Race 6, No.4: ROCSTAR BOY
Finished all over the top of his rivals to win at Newcastle second-up. Has won on Heavy and will be strong late as per usual.
QUADDIE
Race 4: 2,3,11,14
Race 5: 1,2,3,4,5
Race 6: 1,2,3,4
Race 7: 1,2,3,6
JOCKEY TO FOLLOW
Tommy Berry will have his fans lining up behind him in the TAB Jockeys Challenge.
GRAFTON
BEST BET
Race 5, No.18: INTROVERT
Matthew Dunn-trained son of the aforementioned So You Think who sent out all the right signs first-up at home at Murwillumbah.
NEXT BEST
Race 3, No.14: MAJORELLE
Zoustar colt from the Kacy Fogden yard who only has to run up to her Eagle Farm run last to shed his maiden status here.
VALUE BET
Race 1, No.5: BOLD DIRECTION
Filly from the Noel Mayfield-Smith camp who strikes a wholly winnable race at a track where her best run was.
THE INSIDE MAIL FOR KEMBLA GRANGE
RACE 1
We may well lose Deniliquin here to race at Randwick on Saturday where he has an undeniable chance off some good work very late in the piece last start. Pity, because this race suits him. Assuming he is out, it would open the gate for Tidal Creek, this very well-bred son of Sniztel who also happens to be a half-brother to Vega One and the Sweet Embrace winner, One More Honey. Tidal Creek should be at his peak for this, having run so well at Canterbury at his two starts this time in work. El Lago is a Kembla trained gelding who couldn’t be any fitter and has shown a liking for wet tracks. Our Bambino is unbeaten in three starts at the track and distance.
Bet: Deniliquin to win or is scratched Tidal Creek to win
RACE 2
Hell’s Itch is another one who could well be at Randwick on Saturday instead of here. The John Thompson-trained son of Hellbent has trialled twice, both times under some restraint in those two Randwick synthetic heats. Can gallop. Wingstofly is a blue-blooded filly from the Mark Newnham camp being by Not A Single Doubt out of a stakes placed half-sister to Sebring. No surprise then that she adept on wet ground and has a city placing on the board. Go well here. First starter Emancipist is a Ryan/Alexiou gelding by Thronum who has done his best work late in his two trials leading into this giving the impression that 1300m is the ideal distance to make his debut at. Market watch required on the Waller/Kepitis Frankel gelding Phosphone. Local runner Sawdrey has obvious claims.
Bet: Hell’s Itch to win or if scratched Wingstofly to win
RACE 3
Airliner is a royally-bred son of the AJC Derby winner and noted wet performer Starcraft. This gelding’s dam won two Listed races in Germany and comes from one of that nation’s best stakes families. As for the horse himself, Airliner has raced three times, finishing runner-up twice. Plenty to like about his first-up fifth at Mourya on the Heavy 8. Has a bright future. Waterhouse/Bott trained Avoidance will have plenty of admirers and for good reason. The son of Snitzel is out of the stakes-winning mare Risk Aversion who is herself a half to Shania Dane and Hong Kong ace Scintillation. Tipped after failing on debut at Randwick back on November 2 but has trialled up a storm (again). Noble Legend has run honourably at his only two starts, the most recent of those was at Warwick Farm on June 13. Clovis could do something here at odds.
Bet: Airliner to win
RACE 4
Winnertakesitall has all the hallmarks of a stakes-winner sometime in the new season. The Snowden Racing filly is a half to a Listed winner and Listed stakes placegetter (the mare’s only other two race so far). Take note, she was very good when second to Fire And Ice in her recent trial. Inessa is a first starter from the Gary Portelli stable. This daughter of boom first season sire Russian Revolution was seriously impressive winning her only trial at home at Warwick Farm on July 6. Looks to have sufficient talent, California Touch is Snowden Racing colt who is sure to do better this campaign than in his first one judging on his trials last month. Local Convincebility did enough in his Warwick Farm to entertain. Sha Of Gomer could be in better races sometime in 2022/23.
Bet: Winnertakesitall to win or if scratched Inessa to win
RACE 5
Mentalism looks ‘set’ for this. The Gwenda Markwell-trained son of the great So You Think has some fabulous numbers for this, numbers which are worth recounting. For starters, the gelding has raced at Kembla six times for a win and three placings. He has raced four times on Heavy for a win and two placings; he goes well enough fresh, and his trial win was a cracker. Hard to toss. Newcastle filly Bullinachinashop handles all conditions. The daughter of Bull Point has raced six times, winning two and placing three times. Indeed, her ‘worst. run was a last start fourth at Scone so the C.V suggests she will be in the finish somewhere today. I Love Lucy is a Lee and Cherie Curtis-trained filly who comes off a last start win on a Heavy 9 at Scone. Very fast and could take running down. Rapidity has claims. So too Super, but he has to be some query on a Heavy surface.
Bet: Mentalism to win
RACE 6
Rocstar Boy is a great grandson of Alinghi from the Angela Davis stable. This son of Maurice was outstanding first-up when a fast finishing fifth at home at Gosford then went to Newcastle and charged past his rivals to win by the best part of two-lengths. Has no issues on the wet tracks and his ‘wide’ barrier has probably done him a favour here if the pattern is to finish off down the outside part of the track. Ka Bling wasn’t beaten all that far at Newcastle last start. He’s not a bad horse at his best and provided he can handle the really wet stuff, he can figure here. Go Gazza has been ridden by Tommy Berry at both of his two wins. Sent out some very positive signs first-up at Newcastle when fourth to the aforementioned Rocstar Boy. Diva Bella is not a guaranteed starter but has strong claims if she comes.
Bet: Rocstar Boy to win
RACE 7
Podium would be a fitting winner here in the same week as we lost the beloved Beryl White given that his fourth dam is none other than the White’s champion Marscay daughter, Triscay. Not sure that the horse will make it to the post; whether they want to kick him off on a very wet track. On top if he comes. If not, then all roads lead to the David Pfeiffer-trained Vancouver son Vanburg. The three-year-old has won two of his four starts this campaign including on July 14 at Gosford where he raced and came away late in the race. That was a Heavy 10 too by the way. Rebel County could be saved for Randwick on Saturday so is obviously a big player if they chose this race instead. C’Mon Reg is a last start Heavy 8 winner. Only won three from 20 but saves his best for here at home.
Bet: Podium to win or is scratched Vanburg to win