Israel’s military campaign in Gaza has delivered devastating blows to Hamas: It has killed top Hamas leaders and thousands of militants, pummeled the militant group’s tunnel network and undermined its ability to threaten Israel with rocket fire.
When Hamas launched its Oct. 7, 2023, attack against Israel, it had hoped to ignite a regional war that would draw in its allies and lead to Israel’s destruction. Instead, it has been left to fight Israel almost entirely alone. Its allies have been decimated in Lebanon, toppled in Syria and weakened in Iran. The Houthis in Yemen have only managed to inflict occasional rocket and drone attacks, most of which Israel has intercepted.
Despite its isolation, however, Hamas remains the dominant Palestinian power in Gaza even after 15 months of Israeli bombardment, holding sway in displacement camps and refusing to surrender. Although many Palestinians have criticized the group’s decision to carry out the October 2023 attack — unleashing a war that has killed tens of thousands of Gazans and reduced cities to rubble — it has faced relatively little popular unrest.
Hamas has celebrated the provisional cease-fire agreement announced on Wednesday as an “accomplishment,” but its future role in Gaza remains uncertain.
The deal calls for an eventual “cessation of military operations and hostilities permanently,” but Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel has repeatedly suggested that that he will resume attacking Hamas after some hostages held by militants are released.
Yet if the full, multistage agreement is implemented, it could open the door to Hamas rebuilding its ironclad control over Gaza, or at least allow it to maintain an influential role in the territory. Analysts connected to Hamas believe that Israel will struggle to resume the war in the face of international pressure, and that Hamas will play a key role in the future of Gaza.
“Hamas will be present in every detail in Gaza,” said Ibrahim Madhoun, an analyst close to the militant group. “Trying to bypass Hamas will be like burying your head in the sand.”
Mr. Madhoun acknowledged that Hamas’s military wing, the Qassam Brigades, had suffered losses, but said it was still “standing on solid ground” and had recruited new people to replace those killed. Antony J. Blinken, the U.S. secretary of state, said this week that American officials had assessed that Hamas has brought in almost as many new fighters as it has lost in the war.
But if Israel decides to return to war, it could continue to weaken the group.
Resuming the war would not only be a disaster for the Palestinian people, but also Hamas said Tamer Qarmout, a professor of public policy at the Doha Institute for Graduate Studies.
Under such a scenario, Mr. Qarmout said, Israel could find itself moving toward occupying Gaza, which may “cut off Hamas but antagonize everyone else in the public.”