In April 2024, a spokesperson for former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte suggested that the Philippines and China had entered into an undisclosed “gentleman’s agreement” between 2016 and 2022. China would not challenge the status quo in the West Philippine Sea and the Philippines would send only basic supplies to its personnel and facilities on the Ayungin Shoal.
But now, the Philippines is emerging as an essential player in resisting China’s strategic ambitions in the region, with President Ferdinand Marcos, Jr.’s administration asserting Philippine maritime claims through naval confrontations and new legislation.
This comes at a time when the country is facing a quieter, but equally serious, threat at home. The recent, high-profile case of Alice Guo — a former mayor accused of graft, money laundering and espionage — shows how domestic corruption leaves the Philippines vulnerable to Chinese infiltration and subterfuge. How the Philippines navigates this challenge could shape not only its future but also the broader stability of Southeast Asia.
