In the first round of Brazil’s closely watched elections this month, the polls significantly underestimated the support for President Jair Bolsonaro and other conservative candidates across the country.
Many on the right were furious, criticizing the pollsters as out of touch with the Brazilian electorate.
Now, at the urging of Mr. Bolsonaro, some of Brazil’s leaders are trying to make it a crime to incorrectly forecast an election.
Brazil’s House of Representatives has fast-tracked a bill that would criminalize publishing a poll that is later shown to fall outside its margin of error. The House, which is controlled by Mr. Bolsonaro’s allies, is expected to vote and pass the measure in the coming days.
The bill’s final shape and fate is unclear. House leaders have suggested that they may soften the legislation, and its prospects in the Senate, where opponents of Mr. Bolsonaro are in the majority, appear far less certain.
Still, whatever the measure’s fate, the proposal and other efforts to investigate pollsters for their recent miscalculations are part of a broader narrative pushed by Mr. Bolsonaro and his allies, without evidence, that Brazil’s political establishment and the left were trying to rig the election against him.
For his part, Mr. Bolsonaro took to calling the polling firms “liars,” claimed that their mistakes swung up to three million votes to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, his opponent, in the first round, and advocated for the firms to face consequences. “Not for getting it wrong, OK? An error is one thing,” he said. “It’s for the crimes they committed.”
He has not said what crimes he believes were committed.
The Brazilian Association of Pollsters said in a statement that it was “outraged” at the attempts to criminalize surveys that turn out to be inaccurate.
“Starting this type of investigation during the runoff campaign period, when the polling companies are carrying out their work, demonstrates another clear attempt to impede scientific research,” the group said.
Polling firms added that their work was not to predict elections, but to provide a snapshot of voters’ intentions at the time a survey is conducted.
