In the past decade, investors have poured about $330 billion into 2,000 mobility companies, with two-thirds directed at AV technology and smart mobility, according to McKinsey & Co.
The driverless car future hasn’t panned out, but those watching closely caught on early that the splashy announcements and grandiose projects were a fantasy, said Hayder Radha, director of the Connected & Autonomous Networked Vehicles for Active Safety department at Michigan State University.
“Back in 2017, there was a lot of enthusiasm for AV technology, and there was a big rush from many of the major players, obviously from the Big Three, specifically Ford and GM,” Radha said. “I think after awhile, the reality really started to set in, that we are really not that close to developing truly self-driving, safe cars within this short time.”
The reality has been challenging to reckon with in Michigan, the country’s disputed AV tech capital alongside Silicon Valley. However, the work done by the private and public sectors, and the millions of dollars invested by the state into AV-related projects, has not been in vain, said Trevor Pawl, the state’s chief mobility officer.
“I’m not going to say it’s a surprise where we’re at,” Pawl said. “Complex problems defy simple solutions, and autonomous driving is one of the hardest challenges that you can face in the world today.”
The concept of fully driverless cars captures all the attention, but that’s no longer fueling AV tech development, Pawl said.
Companies have shifted away from the cash-burning moonshot of full autonomy to making incremental improvements to advanced driver-assistance systems. Features such as hands-free driving on select freeways, lane centering and adaptive cruise control have been deployed by Tesla, GM, Ford and other automakers.
“I would say that much of the innovation and real-world deployment has shifted modes,” Pawl said. “The other change is it’s gone feature by feature versus full Level 5 based autonomy.”