Alberta drought conditions expected to improve heading into 2025

A little more than a year ago, Alberta’s environment minister wrote to municipalities, asking them to find ways to use less water in light of a looming drought. 

The year that followed brought extremely low reservoir levels, what the province called the largest water-sharing agreements in its history, and a renewed conversation around the province’s water supply.

It was a roller-coaster of a season for farmers like Alison Davie of North Paddock Farms, one that started with dryness and anxiety and closed with the relief of ample rain.

“We really weren’t sure what we were going to be facing,” Davie said. “In the end, it turned out a lot better than we expected it to be in March.”

Now, heading into 2025, the biggest wild card is — as it always is — Mother Nature.

“Next year again, we’re hoping that we get ample snow in the mountains, and it continues to fill the reservoirs, and then we’re hoping for a full water allocation come next spring,” Davie said.

“Then, continue to grow the best quality crops that we can.”

Davie and other farmers are still watching and waiting to see what 2025 will bring.

But the early signals are more positive compared to where the province was at this time last year, when the environment minister was reaching out to municipalities with her warning, said Trevor Hadwen, an agroclimate specialist with Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada.

“Last year, the Prairies in general had about 98 per cent of the ag region in drought,” Hadwen said.

“This year, we’re down to about 35 per cent. So, a very significant reduction in overall drought conditions.”

There’s also fairly good soil moisture going into the winter this year, with very good conditions in most parts of Alberta, Hadwen said.

“We’re looking for those large snowfall events, and hopefully recharge that moisture during spring melts,” he said.

Long-term challenges

A spokesperson for Alberta Environment Minister Rebecca Schulz said it’s too early to speculate about what 2025 will bring. But the province cited its drought response plan, water sharing agreements and drought and flood grant program, allocating $125 million over five years, as being chief to its strategy in navigating the past year’s drought conditions.

“We know the water conservation measures taken this year has helped the reservoir levels in southern Alberta recover after multiple dry seasons, with many reservoirs in significantly better shape than a year ago,” wrote Ryan Fournier in an email. 

“We will continue to monitor conditions and long-range forecasting closely while also working to address longer-term water challenges through a province-wide review of water storage opportunities so our province can continue to grow and thrive.”

There are still some challenging areas that have long-term moisture deficits that have not recovered from the drought situation, according to Hadwen, the agroclimate specialist with Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada.

That includes regions west of Edmonton, west of Red Deer, and down in the southwest corner of the province. In those areas, stream flows are still low, as are reservoirs after significant amounts of water was used during hot and dry conditions, Hadwen said.

“Again, we’re in a much better situation than we were last year, especially in the eastern half of the province, but we still have some concerns going into the winter,” he said. “Albeit, not near as concerning as last year.”

Experts have said southern Alberta is likely to see more challenges around its water supply moving into the future, tied to surging populations and the potential of more frequent and severe droughts. 

The province hasn’t said whether it would adopt a water sharing model in future years, though it recently called the model a major success. Those agreements will remain in effect until the final day of 2024.