Among the first world leaders to publicly react to Donald Trump’s latest electoral victory was Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who praised his win on X and applauded what he described as Trump’s commitment to achieving “peace through strength.”
But privately, Ukrainian officials are almost certainly expressing deep concern about what a Trump presidency could mean for the country’s fight against Russian forces, who are quickly seizing hundreds of square kilometres in Ukraine’s southeast, as they advance at their fastest rate in more than a year.
“To be blunt, the Ukrainians are in a very difficult position,” said Michael Cox, an emeritus professor of international relations at the London School of Economics, in an interview with CBC News.
“One must imagine that the Ukraine government, Zelenskyy and others are going to come under greater pressure to come to some kind of compromise … a deal with Russia that will not be on terms entirely favourable to Ukraine.”
Ukrainian officials have previously expressed frustration with the Biden administration for what they saw as slow delivery of weaponry and restrictions on how it could be used, over fears of antagonizing Russia. But Trump could slow or stop the transfers completely.
He has frequently criticized the tens of billions of dollars in weaponry and financial aid that the U.S. has sent Ukraine, and he vowed as president to end the war, even promising to do it in as little as 24 hours.
Trump has never specified how he would accomplish that, but his unpredictability and frequent criticism of Zelenskyy, along with what Trump calls his “good relationship” with Russian President Vladimir Putin, have raised concerns that Ukraine could be forced into negotiations.
Tensions over defence spending
While European and NATO leaders have promised to step up defence spending, including support for Ukraine, the U.S. remains by far the biggest single donor country, sending more than $55 billion US in military equipment to Ukraine since the end of January 2022.
Republicans in Congress delayed the passage of a U.S government aid package to Ukraine earlier this year, creating what military analysts said was a severe shortage of artillery and other weaponry on the battlefield.
With Russia able to ramp up its own military production and bolster its forces with more than 10,000 North Korean troops, it now appears to be in a stronger position than it has been in months. Trump’s election adds even more uncertainty for Ukraine.
Some 8,000 North Korean soldiers are now in Russia near Ukraine’s border and are preparing to help the Kremlin fight against Ukrainian troops in the coming days, the Biden administration said Thursday. In Canada, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau spoke at the ministerial conference on the human dimension of Ukraine’s 10-point peace formula.
Volodymyr Fesenko, a Kyiv-based political analyst and director at the Centre for Political Studies, fears Trump would pressure Ukraine into negotiating, but he doubts Trump would push to accept a deal completely on Russia’s terms.
“This would look like a defeat for the U.S., and his advisors, and even [Trump] himself, understand this,” said Fesenko.
While Trump hasn’t unveiled what his Ukrainian peace plan might look like, his vice-presidential pick J.D. Vance articulated his vision during a radio show interview in September.
He said he thought a deal would entail the conflict being frozen along current battle lines, with Russia keeping the Ukrainian territory it has captured and a demilitarized zone being set up along the front.
Vance said while Ukraine’s defences would be bolstered to prevent another invasion, Russia would get a “guarantee of neutrality from Ukraine.”
NATO membership in jeopardy
Trump has previously been critical of NATO and warned members of the alliance that the U.S. would only come to Europe’s aid in the event of a future attack if they spent more on defence.
“It is highly likely that Trump would close [the door on] Ukrainian membership of NATO, which would certainly provoke a negative reaction from Zelenskyy,” said Fesenko.
Zelenskyy met with both Trump and Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris during a trip to the U. S. in September to sell his peace plan, which echoes Ukraine’s abiding request to use U.S. long-range weapons to strike deep inside Russian territory.
Despite pleading for permission for months, the Biden administration hasn’t given Kyiv the green light.
Trump, who has repeatedly referred to Zelenskyy as a “salesman” for persuading the U.S. to send tens of billions of dollars in weapons and criticized him for not negotiating with Russia early on, said he had a good relationship with him when they stood side by side in front of reporters on Sept. 27.
Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump says he would work with both Ukraine and Russia to end their war if elected, as he stood next to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy before their meeting in New York. Zelenskyy said he wanted to discuss his ‘victory plan’ for Ukraine with Trump.
Trump also said he had a good relationship with Putin and that he would get the war “resolved very quickly.”
The extent of Trump’s relationship with Putin is unclear. A book recently published by U.S. journalist Bob Woodward claimed Trump has spoken to Putin several times since leaving office after his first term as president.
The Kremlin denied those claims, but Trump didn’t, adding that if he did speak to Putin, it would be the “smart thing” to do.
After Trump declared victory on Tuesday, the Kremlin said the U.S. — which it still considers an “unfriendly” country — could play a role in ending the war in Ukraine, but that it couldn’t happen “overnight.”
Ukrainians consider their future
In the Ukrainian city of Irpin, which was brutalized during the first days of Russia’s invasion in 2022, hundreds of displaced residents from southern and eastern Ukraine are living in modular housing. Many here doubt the war will suddenly come to end just because a new U.S. president has been elected.
“How can [the war] be over in 24 hours?” said Natalia Panachuk, a 73-year-old living in Irpin along with her 76-year-old husband, Volodymr. “[The Russians] bomb every day. What can be changed?”
The elderly couple, who spoke to a journalist working for CBC News, are actually from the Ukrainian city of Hostomel, which came under attack at the outset of Russia’s full-scale invasion on Feb. 24, 2022, as troops tried to capture a key airport.
The Panachuks said that when Russian troops retreated from the area, they grabbed them as human shields and put them in a car with a white flag. They were then made to drive in front of a military convoy as it left Ukraine and headed to neighbouring Belarus.
After they were trapped in Belarus for a week, local volunteers helped them leave for Poland, and eventually the Panachuks returned to Ukraine.
Their home in Hostomel was destroyed, so they continue to live in temporary housing in Irpin.
Serhiy Saenko, 62, lives in the same housing development after he fled the community of Krasnogorovka in the Donetsk region, which Russian forces fully captured in September.
Donetsk is one of four Ukrainian regions that Russia has claimed as its own after holding referendums deemed illegal by most of the world. Keeping those territories is a key part of any ceasefire plans pitched by Russia.
Saenko thinks that under Trump, the U.S. will likely cut aid to Ukraine. But he isn’t sure the situation in his country will be any worse.
“We will continue to suffer,” Saenko said. “We are for negotiations. We want the bloodshed to end so that our boys don’t die.”
