Maharashtra mess: rebellions, multi-cornered fights, lack of issues

Shiv Sena supporters during the nomination filing rally of a party candidate . File
| Photo Credit: PTI

With rebellions, internal squabbles within the Mahayuti and the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA), and the several nominations which have been filed, Maharashtra Assembly elections, slated to take place in a single phase on November 20, have confounded many pollsters. Just like the confusion about the seat-sharing formula, the fights will also be clearer only once the last day of the withdrawal of nominations on November 4 is over. Currently, looking at the several nominations which have been filed by the official candidates, rebel independent candidates and the smaller parties, Maharashtra is slated to have many multi-cornered fights.

Interestingly, despite the agrarian distress, the unemployment levels, these may not become poll issues, say experts. The key to power will likely be decided by Vidarbha where both the Congress and the BJP are directly pitted against each other. The party which will dominate in the 62 seats in Vidarbha will likely hold the key to Maharashtra’s power equation.

This is the first State election where the factions of the Shiv Sena and the Nationalist Congress Party will contest in an all-stakes fight against each other in their traditional strongholds. Sharad Pawar, whose party is fighting in 87 seats, will push to maintain his stronghold on the sugar-rich western Maharashtra belt. The land of education and sugar barons holds key to 70 of the 288 seats. Ajit Pawar-led NCP will fight in over 53 seats. “There seems to be a clear advantage to Sharad Pawar, particularly in western Maharashtra. He has chosen the candidates very strategically. He has good support in the younger population. In terms of the appeasement of communities as well, he has given tickets to Marathas and Dhangars to get his poll equations right,” said Vivek Bhavsar, political commentator and senior journalist.

Fears of horse-trading

“This time, it isn’t one election in Maharashtra. The State faces 288 elections in 288 constituencies. It will truly be an unprecedented election which will be a nightmare for the pollsters as nobody is in a position to predict the outcome. My assessment is, like the 1999 elections, there will be several independent candidates who will emerge as winners. And after the results, they will become the kingmakers, leading to the possibility of horse-trading. Even smaller margins will flip the game in the State,” Girish Kuber, Editor, Loksatta, told Today News 24.

The Mahayuti government banks on the success of the Mukhyamantri Majhi Ladki Bahin Yojana to garner the votes of women. “It will primarily help [Chief Minister] Eknath Shinde, who has aggressively campaigned for it as his scheme,” said Mr. Bhavsar. And because the BJP has done an outreach towards several smaller communities, particularly reaching out to the OBCs; the Kunbis and the OBCs might lend their support to the BJP. But none of the political parties, particularly in the Opposition, seem to be speaking about the issues related to agriculture or youth employment.

“Unfortunately, this looks to be an issue-less election. There is not a single issue that will stand out. There are serious issues like agrarian crisis, Maharashtra’s decline in overall industrialisation, social tension. But none of them will get reflected in this election,” Mr. Kuber said.

Impact of LS results?

The Congress and the MVA have claimed that they will be able to carry ahead the momentum of the Lok Sabha election results where the MVA had received wider support as compared to the Mahayuti. But months after the elections, that impact seems to have weaned away, say experts. While the Congress feels encouraged that it will lead in the Vidarbha region where it is confident of moving ahead of the BJP, the BJP feels it will be able to work its way through the region. “I don’t see the effect of Lok Sabha elections. Had the Maharashtra elections been held with the Haryana elections, things would have been different. But now, welfarism will come into play,” said Mr. Kuber, adding that the Manoj Jarange Patil factor might not have a wider impact on the election results.