Barring China and Uzbekistan’s 0-0 draws against unfancied teams, results in the Asian Cup have gone as per the form book. South Korea, Japan and Iran have notched up comfortable wins and though Australia huffed and puffed against India, what is important is that against opponents resilient in defence, they managed full points.
So Lee Kang-in, not the first name you would associate with the Paris St-Germain frontline, can have more than 15 seconds of fame in a team that also has Son Heung-min. It also means that Takumi Minamino and Sardar Azmoun have given early notice to potential Golden Ball contestants.
That hasn’t been the case in the Africa Cup of Nations, the continental competition that is happening simultaneously with the one in Asia. Yes, defending champions Senegal have started with a comfortable 3-0 win against 10-man Gambia but Alegria, Cameroon, Nigeria, Egypt and Ghana – former winners all –dropped points in their opening match. Cameroon couldn’t get past a 10-man Guinea but by way of surprises, Ghana’s 1-2 defeat to Cape Verde will take some beating. Ghana coach Chris Hughton was accosted by angry fans, one of whom tried to hit him. The former Tottenham Hotspur player and assistant and Newcastle manager avoided damage because security officials made the kind of timely interception Ghana’s defence had not.
You would except Nigeria to get past Equatorial Guinea given that they are separated by 46 places in the FIFA rankings and because of the experience and ability of the Super Eagles with players in the world’s top five leagues. There is a reason why Nigeria have made it out of the group stage in 17 out of their 19 appearances at the high table of African football. This is a country that has qualified for six of the last eight World Cups – they didn’t make it to the 2022 finals on away goals though – and have won the AFCON thrice. “We are capable of winning this tournament because the squad is packed with players who are performing exceptionally well for their European clubs,” striker Victor Osimhen has said.
But a bad result against Cote d’Ivoire and Nigeria could be homeward bound. Ghana play seven-time champions Egypt next in what could be a must-win for both.
Teams are generally better coached and with greater access to strength and conditioning routines and information on fitness, diet and sports science, the gap between teams has narrowed. “I believe the 2024 Cup of Nations will be the toughest to win because the line-up is the strongest,” said Sadio Mane. The point the Senegal star was making was that the top 15 teams, by way of ranking, had qualified.
But that doesn’t quite explain why the form book often gets tossed out in tournaments. Igor Stimac though had a point when he said he would prefer to start against Australia, the strongest team in India’s group. “Big teams get better as the tournament progresses,” the India head coach told HT in an interview before the Asian Cup began in Doha. “Australia didn’t get enough time to prepare…”
Australia’s lack of sharpness in the front third, poor execution of set-play routines and Riyad Mahrez being unable to influence the game against Angola bear out Stimac’s assertion about their lack of preparation. Spain and Argentina’s World Cup titles in 2010 and 2022 corroborate the former Croatia central defender’s point about top team getting better in tournaments. And that of Italy’s run in 1982 or France finishing runners-up in 2006.
By the time, Argentina were cruising past Croatia in the semi-final, they were a team far different from the one that had been sucker-punched by Saudi Arabia. Spain were masters of the one-goal win in South Africa – only against Honduras did they win 2-0 – but their possession-heavy style meant they still bossed those games. Germany came into the semi-final at Durban’s Moses Mabhida Stadium on the back of a goal rush against England and Argentina but, solid in defence and slick with their passing, Spain could keep them quiet. Then Carles Puyol fired a bullet header to a Xavi ball. By then, the loss to Switzerland seemed like it had happened in another iteration of the World Cup.
Of course, teams going into tournaments they expect to win would like to begin with victories. “Making a good start is often crucial,” said Mahrez before the AFCON. “We beat Kenya in our opening match in 2019 and won the tournament. We drew with Sierra Leone three years later and flopped.” But for teams that know how to win competitions, a poor start does not always point to an early passage home. Maybe that explains why Nigeria coach Jose Peseiro said what he did.
“I’m sad about the result but not with the capacity of our performance…If we keep up this dominance we will do well. Of course I’m not happy we drew but if the other side deserved their point, then I’d be concerned,” he said after Saturday’s 1-1 draw.
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