If the sales rate reaches 70 percent, the average unused capacity utilisation rate for ICE production would rise to two thirds, Greenpeace said, basing its estimates on public information about planned capacity and projected sales.
GM and Volkswagen will face the largest pressure with over 3 million units of idled capacity for ICE vehicles in China, presenting a major risk for those automakers, Greenpeace said.
Volkswagen, GM and Toyota said in statements to Reuters they were accelerating their EV strategies in China, with GM adding it would convert over half of its manufacturing footprint in the country to be EV-capable by 2030.
Volkswagen pointed to its rising sales in China and said it expects to profit from the country’s growing demand for cars.
“We will speed up in electrification and digitalisation,” a spokesperson said.
Greenpeace’s study did not factor in possible plans by automakers to export cars from China to offset the production glut, a strategy some have already taken.
Chinese NEV makers including BYD Co. have outpaced foreign peers with EV models and followed Tesla Inc.’s example with bold price cuts for best-selling cars this year, cannibalising sales of ICE vehicles as the price gap between the technologies narrows.
