The Congress could defeat the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party – and hold off a challenge from the Janata Dal (Secular) – and claim a narrow win in this week’s Karnataka Assembly election, according to an opinion poll released last week by ABP News and CVoter.
The poll – which surveyed 73,774 people across the southern state from April 29 to May 5 – indicates the Congress will win between 110 and 122 seats in the 224-member Legislative Assembly. The BJP may win between 73 and 85 seats while the JDS could be restricted to 21-29 seats.
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Parties need 113 seats to claim a majority in the Karnataka Assembly. The state will vote in a single phase on Wednesday with results due three days later, on May 13.
According to the ABP News-CVoter opinion poll, the Congress will win a majority of seats in five of the state’s six major regions, including Greater Bengaluru and Old Mysuru. The BJP is expected to do better in coastal parts of the state.
Below is a table detailing the region-wise predictions of the survey:
| Party | Greater Bengaluru | Old Mysuru | Central Karnataka | Coastal Karnataka | Kittur Karnataka | Kalyan Karnataka |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BJP | 12 – 16 | 4 – 8 | 10 – 14 | 13 – 17 | 22 – 26 | 6 – 10 |
| Congress | 14 – 18 | 24 – 28 | 20 – 24 | 4 – 8 | 24 – 28 | 24 – 28 |
| JD(S) | 1 – 4 | 19 – 23 | 0 – 2 | NA | 3 – 4 | 0 – 3 |
| Others | 0 – 1 | 0 – 3 | 0 – 1 | NA | 3 – 4 | 0 – 2 |
The BJP is seen as weaker in the Old Mysuru region, where it is expected to secure only 25 per cent of the seats; the Congress and JDS are expected to win 35 and 33 per cent. In coastal regions the BJP is expected to secure 13 to 17 of 21 seats. A closer fight is likely in the Kittur Karnataka region, which the Congress is expected to edge by 43 per cent.
According to the opinion poll, nearly 50 per cent of respondents rated chief minister Basavaraj Bommai’s government ‘poor’ but 48 per cent said prime minister Narendra Modi’s work in the state was ‘good’. Most chose Congress leader Siddaramaiah as their ‘favourite CM’; Bommai was second and the JDS’ HD Kumaraswamy was third.
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The 2023 Karnataka election is seen as a crucial one for the Congress and the BJP as it is the first big poll of the year and is also the first of several ahead of next year’s Lok Sabha election.
In the current Assembly the BJP – which came to power after the Congress-JDS alliance collapsed in 2019 after more than a dozen MLAs controversially jumped to the saffron party – holds 119 seats. The Congress has 75 seats and the JD(S) 28. Two seats are vacant.
