Trinamool Congress (TMC) supremo Mamata Banerjee invoking the anti-Emergency movement of 1970s led by socialist leader Jayaprakash Narayan after welcoming Janata Dal-United (JD-U) leader Nitish Kumar in Kolkata on Monday has triggered speculations that Bihar may be at the centre of Indian politics ahead of the 2024 general elections.
The West Bengal chief minister asked her Bihar counterpart to host a meeting of all opposition parties in his home state to give shape to a united Opposition against Prime Minister Narendra Modi-led Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).
“I have made just one request to Nitish Kumar. Jayaprakash ji’s movement started from Bihar. If we hold an all-party meeting in Bihar, we can then decide where we have to go next. We have to give a message that we are all united. I want BJP to become zero. They have become a big hero with media’s support and lies,” she said with Kumar sitting beside her.
Jayprakash Narayan, popularly known as JP, led his ‘Total Revolution Movement’ bringing all the opposition political parties of the country under one umbrella against then prime minister Indira Gandhi-led Congress. Kumar, a disciple of JP, is on a mission to forge Opposition unity ahead of the big fight though it looks improbable due to inherent contradictions among the parties.
In his latest outreach, he has met Congress leaders Rahul Gandhi and Mallikarjun Kharge, Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) chief Arvind Kejriwal, Left leaders Sitaram Yechury and D Raja and Samajwadi Party (SP)’s Akhilesh Yadav. He had earlier hosted his Telangana counterpart and Bharat Rashtra Samiti leader K Chandrashekar Rao in Patna in August last year with the same agenda. He has, however, maintained that he has no ambition in the race for the PM’s post.
On Monday, after his meeting with Banerjee, Kumar said, “We have held talks about the coming together of all parties and making all preparations ahead of the upcoming Parliament elections. Whatever will be done next, will be done in the nation’s interest.”
Having created a record to be the CM of Bihar for the eighth term, Kumar has amply exhibited his deft political manoeuvring skills to keep himself afloat with contrasting alliance partners – mostly with the BJP and rest with the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and the Congress.
Former director of AN Sinha Institute of Social Studies, DM Diwakar said while Kumar’s initiative to reach out to the Opposition and his growing acceptability should be appreciated, equating him with JP was not right.
“Had the society respected Gandhi and JP, the present lot of leadership in the country would have been different. JP did not reach out to political leaders. The political leadership reached out to him. Gandhi and JP had no list for power. At one point of time, 18 states had JP’s disciples in power, but none worked on his principles, viz. right to recall, strengthening of Gram Sabha and party-less democracy. Nobody is ready to think rising above party and power. Yet, Nitish’s outreach is commendable in today’s context,” he said.
“Rahul Gandhi’s ‘Bharat Joro Yatra’ could be seen as a turning point in Opposition politics. It gave a feel to the Opposition that they could have a realistic chance against the BJP if they came together. Nitish has now taken the vital step to bring all the opposition parties, irrespective of who they are comfortable with or not, under one umbrella for the larger cause. He is a deft politician, but he will have to keep his home front safe against a spirited BJP,” he added.
The BJP, on the other hand, is working hard to upset Kumar’s calculations on his home turf by trying to go in for small but crucial caste-based alliances to split the Grand Alliance (GA)’s vote bank. The idea is to keep Kumar engaged in his home. It wants to have warring Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) factions of Chirag Paswan and Pashupati Kumar Paras on one platform before it gets too late. It is also eying former CM Jitan Ram Manjhi’s Hindustani Awam Morcha (HAM) and Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP)’s Mukesh Sahni, while former JD-U leaders like Upendra Kushwaha and RCP Singh are almost there as part of the new coalition.
The All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM)’s intention to contest in Muslim-dominated constituencies is also likely to upset the GA’s calculations.
“We will show the GA its place this time, as people have realised Nitish Kumar’s politics of chop and change to cling on to the chair. Nitish Kumar’s JD-U is a sinking ship and cannot resurrect Opposition’s fortunes,” said state BJP president Samrat Choudhary, echoing what Union home minister Amit Shah has been reiterating during his Bihar visits.
JD-U spokesman and MLC Neeraj Kumar said that Nitish Kumar’s image and work would be the USP in Bihar. “The people of Bihar have shown the BJP its place time and again, as they are a politically mature lot and by now are fully aware of the BJP strategy of ‘fool and rule’,” he said.
“The people will not fall for rhetorical politics and the BJP has no credible leadership in the state. Kumar has moved to the National stage with a plan and he has reiterated that the plan is not for him; rather it is for ridding the country of the misrule of the BJP. All political parties have also joined his initiative, which is a testimony to his credibility and the ability to walk the talk,” he added.
Retired Patna University professor NK Choudhary said, “The BJP has started early to prepare ground for a 2014-like situation when Nitish Kumar’s JD-U fought alone and the NDA managed to win 31 of the 40 seats in the company of smaller parties. However, repeating it will not be easy. The Grand Alliance also has 2015 Assembly election results in Bihar to draw strength from, as it stopped the BJP at its peak. The message is clear – fragmentation of votes will help the BJP and it will try that, but RJD and JD-U together make a formidable combination for an overwhelming vote arithmetic on paper.”
In 2014, the JD-U won just two seats and the RJD-Congress combine, which contested with other smaller parties, managed just seven seats. The NDA got 38.8% vote share, while the JD-U got 15.8% and RJD plus allies 29.6%.
“Simple arithmetic will give the anti-BJP vote share a decisive edge, but two plus two is not always four in politics. A lot of water has flown down the Ganga since then,” Chouhdary added.
