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Dabur India Q2 preview: Profit may drop 2-4%; margin contraction likely 

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Dabur India is likely to report a 2-4 per cent year-on-year (YoY) drop in net profit for the September quarter on a single-digit growth in net sales. Ebitda margin is expected to contract at least 150 basis points on yearly basis. 
 
The FMCG major will report its quarterly results later in the day. 
 
As per analyst estimates, the FMCG firm is expected to report a 5-6 per cent YoY growth in domestic revenues amid higher realisation. Volume growth is seen tepid at 1-2 per cent YoY.
 
Kotak Institutional Equities in its preview note said, “We model a 6 per cent YoY domestic revenue growth, a combination of 1 per cent volume growth and 5 per cent realisation growth.”

This brokerage is expecting the profit figure at Rs 493.40 crore, down 2.2 per cet over the year-ago’s Rs 504.40 crore profit.  Ebitda margin is seen contracting 158 basis points YoY to 20.50 per cent from 22 per cent in the same quarter last year. 
 
HDFC Instutuition Research said, “Consolidated revenue is expected to grow 6 per cent YoY. We model the growth of 5 per cent YoY in domestic revenues. We model 2 per cent volume growth.”
 
This brokerage pegs profit after tax at Rs 480 crore, down 4 per cent YoY.
 
Analysts said Dabur’s food and beverage vertical would outperform other verticals with a double-digit growth. Kotak Institutional Equities said the growth in the vertical might be around 20 per cent while HDFC Instutuition Research pegs it at 30 per cent.
 
Kotak Institutional Equities also expected a 7 per cent degrowth in the health supplements segment.
 
Ebitda margins are expected to decline. 
 
“Consolidated Ebitda margin is expected to decline 160 bps YoY,” Kotak Institutional Equities said.  
 
“We model Ebitda margin contraction of 241 bps YoY to 19.6 per cent,” HDFC Instutuition added.
 
Both brokergaes have an “ADD” rating for Dabur India, indicating positive outlook.
 
 Dabur is an Indian multinational consumer goods company, founded by SK Burman and headquartered in Ghaziabad. It manufactures Ayurvedic medicine and natural consumer products, and is one of the largest fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) companies in India.
 
On Tuesday, the scrip closed at Rs 532.15 on BSE, down 0.88 per cent.

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