Bajaj Auto Q2 preview: Profit may rise 9-15% YoY; margin expansion likely to be muted

Two-wheeler maker Bajaj Auto is likely to report a 9-15 per cent year-on-year (YoY) rise in September quarter profit on a 10-17 per cent rise in net sales. Ebitda margin expansion may remain muted, owing to a weaker product mix, analysts said. 
 
Bajaj Auto’s volumes for the quarter were up 23 per cent sequentially and analysts believe the two-wheeler demand is showing signs of a recovery, even as exports remain weak.
 
“Semiconductor shortages have started to ease, benefitting the production of premium motorcycles and EVs,” said Motilal Oswal Securities, which added the entire benefit of a correction in raw material cost and a weaker rupee will reflect in the December quarter.
 
As far as Q2 earnings are concerned, Elara Securities sees a 14.8 per cent YoY rise in standalone net profit at Rs 1,462.90 crore compared with Rs 1,274.60 crore in the corresponding quarter last year.
This brokerage expects sales to climb 17.7 per cent YoY to Rs 10,309.30 crore from Rs 8,762.20 crore in the same quarter last year. Ebitda margin is expected to come in at about 16.2 per cent, a slight 5 basis points improvement over the June quarter’s margin and nearly 26 basis points rise over the year-ago’s 16 per cent.
 
IDBI Capital sees profit for the two-wheeler maker rising 11.7 per cent to Rs 1,424 crore and sales growing 12.6 per cent to Rs 9,868.60 crore. Prabhudas Lilladher is factoring in a profit of Rs 1,391.30 crore, up 9.2 per cent YoY. It sees sales at Rs 9,675.10 crore, up 10 per cent
“We expect revenue growth of 21 per cent QoQ, led by 23 per cent increase in volumes. We expect merely 30 bps of improvement in the margin as the export volumes were affected in the quarter, which led to a poor product mix,” Prabhudas Lilladher said in its earnings preview.
 
Kotak Institutional Equities said the 23 per cent QoQ increase in the September quarter volumes was led by 98 per cent sequential increase in domestic two-wheeler volumes due to improvement in chip availability & inventory build-up before the festive season.
 
It said a 35-71 per cent sequential increase in domestic and export three-wheeler segments was partly offset by 25 per cent QoQ decline in two-wheeler export volumes due to slowdown in demand in African market.
 
“We expect revenues to increase by 20 per cent QoQ led by 23 per cent QoQ increase in volume and
a 2 per cent QoQ decline in ASPs due to lower mix of spares segment and higher mix of domestic economy motorcycle segment partly offset by higher mix of three-wheeler segment,” it said.
 
ASP stands for average selling price.
 
This brokerage pegs profit figure at Rs 1,391.40 crore. Sales is seen rising 9.9 per cent YoY to Rs 9,632 crore, up 9.9 per cent.