The by-elections at Mokama and Gopalganj assembly seats on November 3 is going to set the tenor of Bihar politics after the formation of Mahagathbandhan government in August this year, according to political leaders and analysts.
The bypolls will be a direct contest between the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). With the RJD naming former MLA and strongman Anant Singh’s wife Neelam Devi against BJP’s Sonam Devi, wife of Lalan Singh, another bahubali of the same area and of the same clan, Mokama bypoll is set to witness a tough battle of ballots.
“Though the bypolls cannot be equated with general elections, it will surely give hint of what the electors think about change in regime,” said political analyst Nawal Kishore Chaudhary.
“It will be interesting to see how the BJP is going to wrest the seat it has never tried before. However, the BJP seems determined to give the RJD a run for its money is apparent from the way it has fielded wife of another mighty leader,” said Abhay Pandey, a local trader.
Mokama has been the stronghold of Anant Singh since 2005. He won the seat twice on the JD(U) ticket and in 2020 on the RJD symbol. He retained the seat with over 78,000 votes by defeating the JD(U)’s Rajiv Lochan Narayan Singh by a margin of over 35,000 votes.
Unlike Mokama, the BJP is better placed at Gopalganj, even though it happens to be the home town of RJD chief Lalu Prasad Yadav. Playing it safe, the BJP has fielded Kusum Devi, wife of late MLA Subhash Singh, in its bid to gain sympathy votes. Singh has been winning the seat for the BJP since 2005.
Party leaders said that the BJP, like in 2020 assembly polls, may witness a triangular contest with convincing edge in favour of Kusum Devi, who will be pitted against the RJD’s Mohan Gupta and the Bahujan Samaj Party’s (BSP) Indira Yadav, the wife of Anirudh Yadav alias Sadhu Yadav, who is also brother in-law of Lalu Prasad.
In the last assembly elections, Subhash Singh wrested the seat for the BJP by bagging over 77,000 votes, leaving Sadhu Yadav to be contented with around 41,000 votes and the Congress’ Asif Gafoor stood third with 36,000 votes.
The election on Mokama seat has been necessitated after RJD MLA Anant Singh was disqualified from the membership of the assembly on being convicted in a criminal case. Subhash Singh died after a prolonged illness early this year.
RJD spokesman Mrityunjay Tiwari exuded confidence of wresting both the seats, saying that the candidates have been named after considering all social and caste equations. “Moreover, all partners of the MGB will help the RJD nominees have an easy walk through the polls,” added Tiwari.
IT cell and data collection in-charge of the BJP Dilip Mishra said that chief minister Nitish Kumar’s capitulation before deputy chief minister Tejashwi Prasad Yadav is not going to make people change their mind. “Popular sentiments are with the BJP after the JD(U) joined the corrupt combine against the mandate,” said Mishra.
The Mahagathbandhan was first formed in 2015 after Nitish Kumar left the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and contested polls in alliance with the RJD and the Congress.It swept the polls in 2015 by winning 178 out of 243 seats in the assembly, leaving the BJP with only 53 seats. The scene changed in 2020 assembly election when the BJP-led NDA won 125 seats.
