With no launches since the third-stage failure of its geosynchronous satellite launch vehicle (GSLV) rocket in August, the Indian Space Research Organisation (Isro) is lagging behind on mission targets that were revised after the second wave of the Covid-19 pandemic. With less than two months to go for three planned launches, it is unlikely that the space agency will be able to go ahead with them on schedule, experts and people familiar with the matter said.
Experts also suggested the delays could impact India’s share of the global space market.
India has managed only two launches in 2021 — the commercial PSLV mission in February which was a success, and GSLV launch in August, which failed as the third cryogenic stage of the launch vehicle did not start. To compare, China conducted 40 launch missions this year, setting a global record.
A major reason for the delays was the impact of the global pandemic, and particularly its brutal second wave in April, May and June.
“There were delays last year and the initial part of this year because Isro was not able to get all the parts from various industries during the pandemic. However, now that the situation is better, we can hope to see more launches. However, it is unlikely that India can conduct three missions in the span of one-and-a-half months. And, if some launch were planned for November, the dates would have been announced by now. Isro may push for one launch in December,” said Ajey Lele, senior fellow at Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses.
According to its revised plans, Isro was to launch two missions this year using its workhorse polar satellite launch vehicle (PSLV), carrying two earth observation satellites, EOS-04 and EOS-06, as the main payload. The third mission was to be the first development flight of the new small satellite launch vehicle (SSLV), again carrying an earth observation satellite EOS-02. All three missions were to be launched in the fourth quarter of 2021.
There is usually a gap of a couple of months between two launches — the smallest duration between two launches in the last four years was 15 days, when two separate launchpads were used for the two missions.
The SSLV is designed as a primarily commercial vehicle to provide launches on demand for other agencies. It is likely to cost four times less than the PSLV, and can be assembled by a team of six within seven days in comparison to a team of 600 that takes a couple of months to assemble a PSLV. Isro declares a launch vehicle operational after two successful development flights.
The SSLV was the only big-ticket mission planned for the year, with the space agency pushing other scientific missions originally scheduled for 2020 — such as the first unmanned flight under the Gaganyaan mission, the lunar mission Chandrayaan-3, and the solar mission Aditya-L1 — after the second Covid-19 wave.
The space agency is also yet to release a failure analysis report on why the third stage cryogenic engine of the GSLV did not start during the August launch. “The report is important to see what went wrong and what needs to be done to rectify it. Without that, the space agency might not want to use the same launch vehicle,” said Lele. He further warned that if the missions keep getting delayed, India will start losing clients, especially for its SSLV launch for which slots might already have been booked by private players.
With India liberalising the space sector, the head of Indian National Space Promotion and Authorisation Centre (INSPACe) that governs such activities earlier said that the agency will push to increase India’s share in the global space market from 2% to around 9%.
“If we are not even able to launch our own routine satellites with a fair amount of periodicity and frequency, then our ability to compete in the global space market is going to be diminished significantly. There are others who are waiting to catch onto the opportunity; we had a good market of launching small payloads that we specialise in. If we lose that market also, we will lose out on our overall revenue and the diplomatic leverage,” cautioned Dr Rajeswari Rajagopalan, director of the centre for security, strategy and technology at the Observer Research Foundation.
No response was received from Isro communication officer.
