There are at least two possible outcomes to the fragile Lebanon ceasefire that began last week.
One, expressed by the country’s caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati, is that it becomes the first step in turning “a new page” on the strife that’s exploded across the region since Hamas attacked Israel on Oct. 7, 2023. The other is both far less peaceful and more likely.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has already said he sees the ceasefire as a pause in which to increase pressure on Hamas in Gaza and to rearm, while focusing on the threat from Iran. Key to his signing the deal was a U.S. offer of $680 million worth of small-diameter bombs and J-dam kits, which turn gravity bombs into guided missiles. These weapons have been core to Israel’s continuing war with Hamas in Gaza.
