Sarah Arnold still remembers the day her partner said the three magic words.
For years, the New Zealand couple from Kāpiti had been living week-to-week, struggling to find time to spend together with their daughter, until one day Huia came home from work having been told a long awaited pay rise would be 50c an hour.
“He walked in the door and all he said was, ‘book the tickets’.”
Sixteen years after the whānau headed across the ditch, experts fear they’ll soon be joined by thousands more Kiwis that New Zealand can ill afford to lose.
Shay Peters, managing director at recruitment firm Robert Walters says NZ is at a “skills precipice” with inflationary pressures and a high cost of living which make it a tough place to live.
“… There’s a real economic push for New Zealanders to move to higher paying countries, and Australia is a higher paying country.”
Peters warns that already New Zealand is losing a high rate of young professionals to OEs and the citizenship development is going to make it easier to stay in Australia.
The skill sets coming in to Aotearoa simply aren’t matching those going out as those returning are often looking to settle into leadership positions and are at the other end of their career.
“New Zealand is going to have a real dearth of ‘doers’ and that is what I foresee coming in the next 24 months.”
The country must make itself more attractive to young professionals or the economy is going to really suffer.
“We have to target industries that we are specifically skills-short in. We have to look at the younger generation of newly qualified individuals and get them into the workforce a lot earlier.”
Ultimately, NZ is in a really tough position: “Australia is a much more attractive place to go at the moment because pay rates are so much higher.”
Economist Cameron Bagrie also expected the development would be a big factor in peoples’ decisions to leave.
“It’s pretty well flagged that NZ is going to have a full-blown recession and the consensus is Australia is going to avert one.”
Bagrie said New Zealand had generally done well over the decades when it came to migration, but was now entering a global environment where there was heightened competition for staff driven by “structural trends such as demographics”.
Healthcare workers would be among those who might be more tempted to leave the country, he believed.
Registered nurse Sally-Anne Colmore has already left and has no plans to return, describing the citizenship announcement as a game changer: “We’ll go for it, absolutely.”
Infometrics has tracked average earnings in NZ and Australia since 1994, which showed Australians were generally at least NZ$200 a week better paid.
But Infometrics chief executive Brad Olsen warns against thinking the grass is always greener across the ditch.
Inflation figures this week had NZ rates as lower than in Australia.
“If we could have our lifestyle, if we could earn this money and the cost of housing and living wasn’t like it is, we’d go back. But that’s never going to happen.”
“In terms of the jobs, if they were unequivocally always paying better and had better conditions… why would anyone be in New Zealand?”
Nonetheless, New Zealanders are still leaving.
The pre-COVID trend of more Kiwis going to Australia than vice versa has resumed, after a reversal when the pandemic struck.
Over the year to September 2022 (the latest data available) 5400 people moved from Australia to NZ, with just over 8500 Kiwis moving to Australia.
And while Olsen won’t be joining them, it’s not just because an economist who can’t point out many places on an Aussie map won’t be much use to the country.
“Personally it’s more because I can’t stand the heat at the best of times, and the Aussies can keep their snakes and spiders, I’m quite happy that we have kiwi back here.”
One Kiwi who won’t be back here is James Ireland, who’s planning on applying for citizenship on July 1.
The 36-year-old shifted to Melbourne in 2018, after applying for a public transport sector job just too good to ignore.
“It was basically the same thing I was doing in Auckland but near on double the salary for the same job.”
While the money played a big part in his initial decision, it’s the future career opportunities, events and lifestyle that have also seen him stay.
“There’s more of everything – everything is just a bit brighter and shinier over here.”
He says it’s on trips home, and particularly to supermarkets, where his decision is further cemented.
“By no means is it perfect here… however the wages are so much higher, and it feels like the cost of living stress level is 50 percent lower. It feels like that pressure just isn’t so intense.”
As for the downsides? There aren’t many.
Being apart from family is the biggie and the cultural touchstones of Aotearoa are the only other things lacking.
Jandals have become thongs and kūmara sweet potato.
Ultimately though, Ireland encourages other Kiwis to make the move or at least think about it seriously.
And although citizenship won’t change much in his short term future, it’s a commitment to a country he deeply loves.
“It’s proving to myself as well as those around me that I’m here for good; I’m not coming home.”
As for Sarah Arnold’s whānau? Sixteen years on from those three magic words, they won’t be returning – though it’s not for a lack of trying.
“We tried for two years to buy a home in NZ; we’ve been back in Perth a year and have just been approved to build a house. That’s the whole reason we came back here – we want a mortgage.”
While Arnold and her two younger children are already dual-citizens, Saturday’s news means 23-year-old Tiaia can apply now and Huia in three years.
And that’s a relief, because life is good.
Huia now earns nearly double what he could in NZ and the house is being built.
The whānau miss Huia’s family and Aotearoa’s māori culture but mostly, Arnold says, it’s all of us she really feels sorry for.
“My only regret is that we couldn’t have all this back home, that all Kiwis can’t experience what we have here.”
A challenge to make New Zealand better
National Leader Christopher Luxon says the easier citizenship pathway is most welcome: “Kiwis make a significant contribution to Australia and they should receive the same rights as Australians do in this country.”
Despite that, it’s also a reminder that many New Zealanders are looking for better lives.
“It’s also a challenge to whether we can make NZ such a compelling proposition they don’t want to leave; make it a place where people want to live, work and run businesses.”
ACT Party leader David Seymour says while its good news for New Zealanders in Australia wanting citizenship, it’s a sign the Government’s given up.
“It would be churlish to ignore the relief this will give Kiwis in Australia but its tragic that one of Labour’s greatest achievements is helping people leave the country, and it’s actually a decision made by a government in Canberra.
“The question is how New Zealand makes it more attractive to keep Kiwis here.”
He says NZ must improve its productivity which “underlines the quality of healthcare which is the canary in the coal mine as nurses leave.”
NZ First leader Winston Peters says the announcement finally puts to rights the “disastrous” 2001 decision that seriously damaged the relationship between the countries and saw Kiwis in Australia lose their rights.
“It’s been repaired and you can’t argue with success. People have the right to leave, our job is to construct a society in which they want to stay.”
