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Few signs of labour union resurgence, despite rising prices and worker shortages

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With inflation cutting into workers’ spending power and businesses complaining of staff shortages, you might think┬аnow would be the time for┬аa dramatic resurgence in the kind of labour activity Canada has not seen since the 1970s.

But, so far, people who study the trade union movement in Canada say it’s not happening.

Examples┬аof labour activism in the U.S.┬атАФ┬аnotably among Amazon warehouse workers and at the coffee chain Starbucks┬атАФ┬аhave seen only faint echoes in Canada.

Trying to keep up with inflation

Instead, data seems to show that┬аthe workers who are┬аkeeping┬аup with inflation so far are those who┬аtake individual тАФ rather than collective тАФ action to fight for better wages and working conditions:┬аThey are switching jobs.

After last week’s seven per cent jump in prices in the U.S., Canadians get an official┬аtally on Wednesday.

While Statistics Canada calculates its consumer price index (CPI) differently here than in the U.S., economists expect our prices will rise a little faster than┬аlast month’s 4.7 per cent increase.

A study titled Talent Trends, released Friday by the Conference Board of Canada, shows that costly┬аlabour shortages reported by business groups may be creating an opportunity for those who want to switch jobs in search of better pay and conditions.

Union members are shown on strike in Denver last week, part of a growing wave of labour action in the U.S. that experts say is not happening in Canada. Instead, they say, Canadians are quitting and looking for better jobs. (Kevin Mohatt/Reuters)

What the┬аstudy shows is that “voluntary turnover” тАФ not being fired or laid off┬атАФ┬аis a rising trend,┬аhitting a seven-year high of 9.1 per cent in 2020-2021.

One of the report’s authors, Lauren Florko, noted that turnover is especially concentrated in three areas:┬аhigh-tech jobs, health care and manufacturing. It’s not yet clear what is causing people to leave┬аmanufacturing jobs,┬аshe said, but for the other two sectors, the reasons are quite distinct.

“Why we see it mostly for the science and tech professional areas is mostly because those are jobs that can work from home, and we see that there’s lots of potential poaching,” said Florko.

And demand for tech workers┬аis high┬аnot just in Canada, she said, but for Canadians employed remotely by global firms.

Health-care burnout

In the health-care field, it is more of a case of workers being driven away by burnout during the intense demands of the pandemic, Florko said.┬аSome are switching careers, others┬аare seeking more education.

While wages continue to lag inflation, more turnover is contributing to┬аbetter wages┬атАФ┬аsimply because new jobs tend to pay more than the ones people leave.

In the case of relatively low-wage workers, the Conference Board study shows that the wage rates being extended in new job offers┬аin 2020 were up by 5.7 per cent, well above the rate of inflation.

People who did not change jobs did not get the same kind of┬аincreases, said Florko.

WATCH |┬аLonger hospital stays linked to COVID leading to burnout for health-care staff:

CIHI report highlights COVID-19 cost to health-care workers, says specialist.

A Canadian Institute for Health Information report that details the high monetary cost of caring for COVID-19 patients also underlines how the complex care that is needed is burning out health-care workers, says Dr. Matthew Oughton, an infectious diseases specialist in Montreal. (Evan Mitsui/CBC) 1:14

Stephanie Ross, co-author of the book Rethinking the Politics of Labour in Canada, has been surprised that after a long period of stagnation in things such as the strike rate and the creation of new union locals, there hasn’t┬аbeen more of a labour union resurgence to improve pay and conditions.

“There are always groups of workers trying to unionize, but those attempts have not really moved the needle that much,” said Ross, who was recently appointed director of the School of Labour Studies at McMaster University in Hamilton.┬а

According to the Canadian Labour Congress, the largest labour protest in Canadian history was in 1976, when more than a million workers walked off the job as part of a protest against wage and price controls imposed by a federal government trying┬аto combat soaring inflation.┬а

Workers falling behind

Since around that time, workers have earned a shrinking share of productivity┬аgains.

A study by the U.S.-based Pew Research┬аshowed labour’s share of income had not budged in 40 years, while returns to capital soared. Canadian numbers are similar.

Some analysts blame the change on lower levels of unionization. Others blame the decline at least partly on the ability of manufacturers to ship jobs overseas as part of globalization.

“I think there’s a lot of discontent with what’s happening in peoples’ workplaces and that usually does drive labour action,” said Ross.

But it┬аdoes not seem to be happening in Canada, she said, especially compared to the United States and other parts of the world.

The reason why discontent┬атАФ┬аand an apparent strong bargaining position for in-demand workers┬атАФ┬аdoes not translate into collective labour action is not well understood, said Ross. Perhaps it is because unions have not shown themselves to be good at satisfying those demands in the face of government limits on wage increases.

Or maybe, Ross said,┬аit is because, as a group,┬аworkers feel obliged to stay on the job during a crisis, when they are so badly needed.

Despite worker anger at a Cargill meat-processing plant in High River, Alta., a strike was averted last month. The facility had been the site of one of the largest COVID-19 outbreaks in Canada. (Dan McGarvey/CBC)

Instead, individual workers are demonstrating their┬аbargaining clout by quitting and taking a different job, she said.

“That ability to quit does reflect some greater leverage┬атАФ but it’s a very individual strategy.”

Economists suggest that the process of people quitting and looking for better jobs is good for the economy because it tends to move labour to the places workers’ skills┬аare most needed,┬аincreasing the economy’s productivity.

Waiting for the ‘great attrition’

It’s┬аnot clear that is happening in health care┬атАФ┬аat least not yet.

But examples of past protests show they don’t always immediately follow periods of public dissatisfaction, said Lesley Wood, an associate professor at York University in Toronto.

“There may be a lag,” said Wood, who studies something called “cycles of contention,” the sometimes-mysterious process where peasant revolts are preceded by long periods┬аof┬аquiescence┬аor wars following a long period of peace.

If inflation stays high and workers continue to fall behind, it is possible that another cycle of collective action could arrive, even if┬аthere are few signs of it now.

But whether workers decide to act┬атАФ┬аeither through┬аunions┬аor individual action┬атАФ┬аFlorko said her research shows┬аthat the bargaining clout currently giving them the confidence to quit is not likely to soon disappear.

Despite increasing turnover and the┬аexisting shortage of skilled workers in Canada, what Florko’s report refers to as the “great attrition” may only get worse. She said older workers with valuable skills who have delayed retirement during the pandemic┬аare expected to leave the workforce in greater numbers in the coming decade.

“Typically, we see retirements closer to two or three per cent year-over-year┬атАФ┬аand last year we only saw 1.4,” said Florko.┬а


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